by Mohammed Bello Doka
12 June, 2026.
Today is exactly 33 years since the infamous annulment of the June 12 elections, a date that remains a bleeding scar on Nigeria’s democratic journey. It is also equivalent to approximately 116 days since the initial detention of Mallam Nasir El-Rufai, a period that has stretched from mid-February to now, mid-June, with no clear end in sight.
The reason I am making this seemingly irrational comparison is because a few days ago, I wrote an article titled Why Mallam Nasir El-Rufai Must Not Die in Detention, and some of the responses and even the calls I received afterwards are as troubling as some people saying, What if El-Rufai died in detention? The North also killed Abiola.
To me, that is the height of cowardice, because even God does not visit the sin of the parent on their children. As the scriptures tell us in Ezekiel 18:20, The soul that sinneth, it shall die. The son shall not bear the iniquity of the father, neither shall the father bear the iniquity of the son. This biblical principle is clear: each individual is accountable for their own actions. Yet, here are otherwise sensible Nigerians, in a moment of what I can only describe as political hysteria, suggesting that an innocent man should pay with his life for a political wound inflicted over three decades ago by a different set of actors.
This perception brings to bare the real reason why El-Rufai was arrested and detained. In politics, perception is everything, and such theorizing, whether rightly or wrongly, robs the government of its legitimacy and exposes it to profound suspicion. This perception also ignores the fact that punishing El-Rufai for the sins of Abacha, even though Abacha died before Abiola, is shameful and cowardly in the sense that the two individuals never had any form of documented relationship. The ancient Greek philosopher Aristotle once stated, It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it. What we are dealing with here is not an educated mind but a vengeful spirit that refuses to differentiate between historical actors. There is no single piece of evidence, no declassified file, no whispered testimony that places Mallam Nasir El-Rufai as a confidant, an ally, or even a minor associate of the late General Sani Abacha. To conflate them is not just ahistorical; it is an act of intellectual violence.
Furthermore, this perception ignores the fact that both Abacha and Abiola never survived that crisis. They both perished, leaving behind a nation in turmoil. Politically, almost all the major actors of that era lost their powers in the midst of the skirmishes, suffering serious and lasting consequences. The Roman philosopher Seneca once observed, He who seeks revenge should remember to dig two graves. In the Nigerian case, the graves of Abacha and Abiola were dug almost simultaneously, leaving no victor, only victims. The former died suddenly in June 1998, and within a month, the latter also died under mysterious circumstances while in detention. The military cabal that propped up that system crumbled, and the political elite that profited from the annulment found themselves scattered to the winds. To wish for a repeat of that cycle of mutual destruction in 2026 is the height of madness.
This perception also ignores the fact that Abacha, whatever his other attributes, was the head of a brutal military regime. Those occurrences were the main reasons Nigerians from across the country, regardless of ethnicity or religion, fought to bring back democracy. The pro-democracy movement, led by groups like the National Democratic Coalition, faced down tanks, tear gas, and detention without trial to ensure that the will of the people would never again be trampled upon by men in uniform. That struggle culminated in the birth of our current Fourth Republic. To now, in that same republic, use the memory of that dark period to justify the extra-judicial killing of a political opponent is to spit on the graves of all those who sacrificed for our freedom.
The most troubling exposé in this regard is that those same people equate President Bola Ahmed Tinubu to Abacha. This is a shocking and dangerous narrative that leaves us with no option but to stand up and make sure Tinubu never returns to the Villa in 2027, in the same way every right-thinking Nigerian stood against Abacha. In the event of Abiola’s death, Nigeria barely survived the situation, considering the prevailing circumstances. The nation was on the precipice of a total and natural collapse. Should anything similar to what happened to Abiola happen to El-Rufai today, the consequences would be catastrophic.
To be clear, the immediate dangers of El-Rufai dying in detention are numerous. First, his detention has already become a rallying cry for opposition figures and northern political elites who feel marginalized. A death would transform him from a controversial former governor into a martyr. Second, unlike Abacha, who ruled with an iron fist and had total control over the military and security apparatus, President Tinubu does not have the same total grip on power. The political architecture is more fragile, and the security forces are not a monolith loyal to one man.
The risk of pogroms and widespread ethnic violence, reminiscent of what happened after the tragic assassinations of the Sardauna of Sokoto, Sir Ahmadu Bello, and the Prime Minister, Sir Abubakar Tafawa Balewa, in the 1966 coup, is real and present. That event plunged the nation into a spiral of ethnic distrust and counter-coups that ultimately led to a devastating civil war. Are we so eager to revisit those dark days?
Why did I even take this seemingly irrational comparison seriously? It is because I have come to notice a disturbing pattern with this government. Whether it is a major decision, a new economic policy, the arrest of opposition leaders, or a cabinet reshuffle, the information first filters through social media through seemingly careless comments or tweets that appear designed to test the water. By floating the idea that El-Rufai could be avenge-killed for Abiola, the government is gauging public reaction. We must not be silent. We must shout from the rooftops that if killing El-Rufai to avenge Abiola is the next policy, then that policy is not only cowardly but also suicidal.
Consequently, there must be an urgent call to relevant stakeholders, including the judiciary, human rights organizations, and the international community, to step in and ensure that El-Rufai is treated strictly within the ambit of the law. The government must stop using excessive, unattainable bail conditions as a tool to keep him in perpetual detention without a fair and speedy trial. Let those that have ears hear, and let those that have eyes see.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
Abuja Network News
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