by Mohammed Bello Doka
1 June, 2026.
The conversation around who becomes the vice presidential candidate on the African Democratic Congress ticket in 2027 has reached a critical point. For Atiku Abubakar, the choice of running mate is not merely a political formality. It is the single most important decision that will determine whether his campaign can realistically challenge President Bola Tinubu. After examining the electoral map, the regional dynamics, and the strengths of potential candidates, one conclusion becomes unavoidable. Rotimi Amaechi is the ideal running mate for Atiku Abubakar.
The electoral arithmetic facing the opposition is stark. The South-West region is firmly aligned with President Tinubu. As the incumbent president and a native of the region, Tinubu commands loyalty that no opposition candidate can realistically break. The political structures in Lagos, Ogun, Oyo, Osun, Ondo, and Ekiti states are largely controlled by the All Progressives Congress. Any attempt to win significant votes in the South-West against an incumbent from that same zone is an exercise in futility. The opposition must accept this reality and allocate resources elsewhere.
The South-East presents an equally difficult challenge, though for different reasons. Peter Obi retains a devoted following across the five Igbo states. The Obidient movement, while not as visible as it was in 2023, remains a potent force. Any attempt by Atiku to select a running mate from the South-East would be perceived as a direct challenge to Obi’s influence. Rather than winning over Igbo voters, such a move would likely split the anti-Tinubu vote in the region, creating confusion and reducing the effectiveness of the opposition campaign. The South-East is not winnable for any candidate other than Obi himself. Atiku would be wise to avoid investing hope there.
This leaves the South-South as the only battleground region where the opposition can make meaningful gains. The South-South has six states. Rivers, Delta, Akwa Ibom, Bayelsa, Cross River, and Edo. In 2023, the region shared its votes among the three major candidates. No single candidate dominated. This fragmentation presents a clear opportunity for a well-crafted ticket in 2027. The people of the South-South have historically voted based on regional inclusion, resource control, and a sense of belonging at the national table. A vice presidential candidate from the region who can articulate these concerns would give Atiku a significant advantage.
Rotimi Amaechi fits this description more than any other figure in Nigerian politics today. He served as governor of Rivers State from 2007 to 2015, a period during which he established himself as a formidable administrator and political strategist. He later served as minister of transportation under President Muhammadu Buhari from 2015 to 2022. More importantly, Amaechi was the director-general of the APC presidential campaign that brought Buhari to power in 2015. He understands the inner workings of the ruling party. He knows its vulnerabilities. He has experience winning national elections against entrenched incumbents.
Some analysts have questioned whether Amaechi can deliver Rivers State, given the influence of his political rival Nyesom Wike, who currently serves as minister of the Federal Capital Territory under President Tinubu. This objection misses the point. Amaechi’s value is not limited to his home state. His value lies in his ability to compete across the entire South-South region. He is a known figure in Delta, where he has political allies. He has relationships in Bayelsa from his years as a governor in the neighboring state. He can campaign effectively in Akwa Ibom and Cross River, where the APC structure remains weak. The question is not whether Amaechi can deliver Rivers. The question is whether any other candidate can deliver the South-South at all. The answer is no.
The game theory underlying this decision is straightforward. The South-West wants a president from the South-West. The South-East wants a president from the South-East. Neither region will be satisfied with a vice presidency. The South-South has no presidential candidate of its own in this cycle. For the South-South, the vice presidency represents the highest available position. Voters in the region understand this calculus. They will reward a ticket that gives them a seat at the table. Atiku, a Northerner, offers that seat. Tinubu, a Southerner from the South-West, does not.
The alternative to Amaechi is considerably worse. Former President Goodluck Jonathan has been mentioned as a potential candidate, but his emergence would create more problems than it solves. The faction of the Peoples Democratic Party loyal to Nyesom Wike has already indicated that it will oppose any Jonathan candidacy. Tinubu would deploy Wike to destroy a Jonathan ticket from within, using the minister’s influence in Rivers and his connections across the South-South to fracture the opposition vote. Jonathan brings the additional baggage of having lost his re-election bid in 2015. Amaechi brings no such baggage. He has never lost a presidential election because he has never run for president. He has only won.
The zoning argument that dominates opposition circles has become a distraction. Dele Momodu has noted that insisting on a Southern president in 2027 plays directly into Tinubu’s hands.
Amaechi also brings a quality that is rare in Nigerian politics. He is not afraid to challenge powerful interests. During his tenure as minister of transportation, he pursued major infrastructure projects including the Lagos-Ibadan railway and the Itakpe-Warri rail line. He faced criticism and opposition but delivered results. This record of performance, combined with his willingness to take difficult stands, would appeal to voters who are tired of politicians who promise everything and deliver nothing. In a campaign against an incumbent president, a running mate with a reputation for action rather than talk is invaluable.
The South-South is ready for a ticket that takes it seriously. The region has produced oil wealth that funds the entire country, yet its people live with pollution, underdevelopment, and neglect. A vice presidential candidate from the region who can speak to these grievances with authenticity would energize voters who have felt ignored by successive governments. Atiku has spoken about restructuring and resource control. Amaechi has governed a South-South state and understands the region’s pain points. Together, they can present a credible alternative to Tinubu’s administration.
The opposition does not have unlimited time. The 2027 election cycle is already underway. Every day that passes without a decisive ticket announcement allows the APC to consolidate its advantages. Atiku has run for president multiple times. He has learned from each experience. The lesson from 2023 is that sentiment and regional balancing without strategic calculation do not work. The lesson for 2027 is that the South-South is the key. Rotimi Amaechi is the key that opens that door. Atiku should take him.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
Abuja Network News
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