By Mohammed Bello Doka
Today, May 17, 2026, Sunday PUNCH published an investigation that shook the foundations of Nigeria's political establishment. Their findings were brutal and unambiguous but not unexpected: more than 45 per cent of current senators may struggle to secure return tickets for the 2027 elections, as governors, former governors and other influential political figures intensify moves to take over seats in the National Assembly. That 45 per cent figure was not a projection. It was a verdict. And for the senators who made up that number, the verdict was delivered not by the press but by the very man they had spent three years empowering.
We have watched this tragedy unfold in slow motion. And now, as the dust settles on primary elections across the country, we must ask a question that no one in power wants to hear: how many more will fall to the people's anger?
The senators who lost their return tickets did not lose because they were incompetent. They did not lose because their constituents rejected them. They lost because they surrendered their power, their oversight, their constitutional duty, and then begged the man they enabled to save them. He did not save them. He looked away. And in that single act of calculated indifference, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu taught them the oldest lesson in politics: those who help entrench a dictatorship will always be its first victims.
I have said this repeatedly, and the events of the past week have proven me right beyond any doubt. When a legislature abdicates its role as a check on executive power, it does not become the executive's partner. It becomes the executive's hostage. And hostages, as we now see, are discarded the moment they outlive their usefulness.
The Villa Meeting That Sealed Their Fate
The Senate leadership visited the Presidential Villa to request automatic re-election tickets for all APC senators ahead of the 2027 general elections. Their logic was straightforward. After handing President Tinubu an automatic ticket for his own re-election bid, waiving primaries and party contests, they expected reciprocity. What they received instead was a political ambush. According to multiple sources familiar with the meeting, President Tinubu rejected the request outright and directed the senators to return to their respective state governors if they wished to secure tickets for another term. Go back to your governors, Tinubu was quoted as saying. They will decide who returns. For senators across the 36 states, this directive was a political death sentence. As I wrote on April 24, 2026, President Tinubu does not return loyalty. He consumes it.
A Record of Legislative Surrender
To understand why the Senate believed it deserved automatic tickets, one must recall the scale of its legislative subservience since May 2023. The open-source records are damning. On August 7, 2023, the Senate confirmed 45 ministerial nominees with minimal questioning. Senator Sunday Karimi told one nominee, You are eminently qualified. I will not waste time asking questions. In June 2023, President Tinubu requested an increase to the nation's borrowing limit from N22.7 trillion to N56.7 trillion, an additional N34 trillion in debt. The Senate approved the request without a public hearing or sectoral analysis.
In December 2023, the Senate passed the Student Loan Act without dissent. In June 2024, it approved a supplementary budget of N6.2 trillion within 48 hours. In October 2024, it confirmed 27 Resident Electoral Commissioners in one sitting. In December 2024, it passed Tax Reform Bills under suspended rules. On March 18, 2025, the Senate approved emergency rule in Rivers State within hours, including the suspension of elected officials. A sole administrator was appointed, a position unknown to the 1999 Constitution. The Senate approved it anyway. In late 2025, it confirmed the Chairman of INEC via voice vote. And most recently, in February 2026, the Senate confirmed the Inspector General of Police in under one hour.
Each of these acts of surrender was a brick in the wall of their own political prison. And now that the wall has closed in on them, they are begging for a door that does not exist.
Perhaps the most consequential surrender occurred when the Senate participated in passing the Electoral Act Amendment that introduced several controversial clauses affecting electoral accountability. The National Assembly amended the provisions governing election petitions, particularly Section 138 of the Electoral Act 2026. Under the revised law, the grounds upon which an election may be challenged were significantly narrowed. The amended section now limits election petitions largely to issues of corrupt practices, non-compliance with the Act, or whether the declared winner secured the majority of lawful votes. Crucially, the amendment removed certificate forgery and falsification of credentials as explicit grounds for challenging election results at tribunals. As one civil society observer told The Cable, The Senate was supposed to be the check. Instead, they became the enablers. And now they are surprised that the man they empowered has turned on them.
The Governor-Senator Trap
The senators who fell into this trap did so with their eyes wide open. For nearly three years, the Nigerian Senate functioned less as a legislative chamber and more as a presidential appendage. Under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, the upper chamber approved borrowing requests, confirmed nominees, and passed amendments at a pace that would be admirable if it were accompanied by oversight but it has not. Instead, what emerged was a pattern of legislative surrender so complete that senators now find themselves begging for political survival from the very man they empowered.
Under Nigeria's current electoral framework, state governors exercise enormous influence over party primaries. They control local government chairmen, ward delegates, party executive committees at the state level, and, in many cases, the financial machinery required to run competitive primaries or nomination in the case of consensus. Senators, by contrast, operate at the federal level and typically lack the grassroots party infrastructure necessary to bypass a hostile governor.
The structural reality is that most Nigerian senators and their state governors are not allies. In Lagos, senators have clashed with Governor Babajide Sanwo-Olu over zoning and budgetary matters. In Kano, the political landscape has shifted dramatically. Governor Abba Kabir Yusuf, originally elected under the New Nigeria Peoples Party, decamped to the APC early 2026 following broader northern political realignments. His defection has left APC senators navigating a complex relationship with a governor who now belongs to their party but arrived through a different political structure. In Rivers, the protracted political war between Governor Siminalayi Fubara and his predecessor Nyesom Wike spiraled into a constitutional crisis. In Zamfara, Governor Dauda Lawal, elected under the PDP in 2023, also decamped to the APC early 2026 and has maintained a frosty relationship with senators from the state. Across the federation, from Ebonyi to Gombe, governors have openly declared that senators seeking re-election require executive endorsement.
The senators who enjoyed cordial relations with their governors, typically relatives or long-standing allies, may survive. The majority will not.
The Victims of Tinubu's Loyalty Test
And the victims are already mounting. The Sunday PUNCH investigation of May 17, 2026, named senators across the country whose return bids are in jeopardy. They include Saliu Mustapha of Kwara Central, Suleiman Sadiq of Kwara North, Lola Ashiru of Kwara South, Solomon Adeola of Ogun West, Adetokunbo Abiru of Lagos East, Ahmad Lawan of Yobe North, Tahir Monguno and Kaka Lawan of Borno, Sarafadeen Alli and Abdulfatah Buhari of Oyo, Aliyu Ahmed of Nasarawa West, and Buba Umar Shehu of Bauchi South. Senator Jimoh Ibrahim of Ondo South has already exited the race following his appointment as Nigeria's Permanent Representative to the United Nations. Others facing uphill battles include Ireti Kingibe of the FCT, Lawal Usman of Kaduna Central, Khalid Mustapha of Kaduna North, Gbenga Daniel of Ogun East, Kelvin Chukwu of Enugu East, Abba Moro of Benue South, Emmanuel Udende of Benue North-East, Titus Zam of Benue North-West, Ned Nwoko of Delta North, and Peter Ndalikali of Niger South. In Kogi Central, Senator Natasha Akpoti-Uduaghan faces a difficult re-election battle as former Governor Yahaya Bello intensifies efforts to reclaim the district for the APC.
In Kwara State, three serving senators, Saliu Mustapha, Suleiman Sadiq and Lola Ashiru, have all declared governorship ambitions, effectively abandoning their Senate seats. Senator Oyelola Ashiru, the Deputy Senate Majority Leader, officially declared to contest the Kwara State governorship race, unveiling a seven-pillar agenda and declaring, I am asking for the mandate to govern Kwara State from 2027 to 2031. Not to manage it. Not to preside over it. To transform it. Senator Sadiq Suleiman Umar of Kwara North followed suit, announcing his intention to contest the same office. Three senators, all abandoning the Senate in pursuit of higher office. And they are not alone.
In Oyo State, Senator Sharafadeen Alli of Oyo South has been endorsed as the APC consensus candidate for governor, while Senator Abdulfatah Buhari of Oyo North has also declared his governorship ambition. In Ogun State, Senator Solomon Adeola has been endorsed as the APC consensus candidate for governor. Senator Gbenga Daniel of Ogun East, the former governor of the state, is locked in a fierce battle with Governor Dapo Abiodun for the Ogun East senatorial ticket. Daniel has vowed to defeat the governor overwhelmingly in a free and fair primary, telling party members not to be deterred by intimidation or harassment. But the governor, who controls the party machinery, has already been endorsed as the consensus candidate by stakeholders in the district. The outcome is all but predetermined.
In Yobe State, former Senate President Ahmad Lawan withdrew from the APC governorship race after party stakeholders, including Governor Mai Mala Buni, endorsed a consensus candidate. Lawan's Senate seat is now at risk. Senator Musa Mustapha has reportedly stepped aside after APC stakeholders endorsed Governor Buni for the Yobe East senatorial seat. In Nasarawa State, Governor Abdullahi Sule has emerged as the consensus candidate for Nasarawa North. Senator Aliyu Ahmed of Nasarawa West has been endorsed as the preferred successor by the governor, but that endorsement may prove meaningless if the governor himself decides to run for the Senate.
In Delta State, former Governor Ifeanyi Okowa is being positioned to challenge Senator Ned Nwoko for Delta North. In Imo State, the APC leadership has reportedly endorsed Governor Hope Uzodimma for the Imo West senatorial seat despite the interest of incumbent Senator Osita Izunaso and former Governor Rochas Okorocha. In Gombe State, former Governor and serving Senator Danjuma Goje is believed to have lost support for a fifth Senate term following a zoning arrangement favouring a candidate aligned with Governor Muhammadu Yahaya.
The Betrayal of Tinubu's Own Supporters
Perhaps the most heartbreaking casualties are Tinubu's own supporters, men and women who bled for his election, defended his policies, and now find themselves discarded like used handkerchiefs.
Some members of the All Progressives Congress in the National Assembly have threatened to defect to opposition parties if they are denied tickets ahead of the 2027 general elections. The lawmakers, who spoke anonymously, expressed frustration over indications that President Bola Tinubu had allegedly empowered governors of the party to influence the selection of candidates in their states. One lawmaker said, Even after the support we have given the President, making Nigerians tag us as a rubber stamp, he could not protect and reward us, leaving us at the mercy of the governors. Another lawmaker warned, As devastating and disappointing as this is, it is not too late for the President to reconsider his decision. He has pending requests before us and a full budget to present.
Former Cross River Governor, Professor Ben Ayade, has said he feels betrayed by President Bola Tinubu's directive that he abandon his bid for the Cross River North Senate seat. Ayade, in a statement, said that after a high-level consultation in Abuja, the president asked him to withhold his Senate ambition. I yield to his request even as I pour tears of ill treatment and agony, he said. Ayade alleged that the beneficiaries of the president's order were the same political opponents who had turned churches against him during the 2023 elections. To be asked to yield the ticket to the same persons that called us Muslims and brandishing guns and machetes at collation centres against us is most traumatizing, he declared. Ayade said he had played a foundational role in building the APC in the South-South, being the first APC governor in the region. He said he delivered nearly 40,000 votes above the PDP for Tinubu in Cross River in 2023 and had funded the party's national convention, donated vehicles and motorbikes, and launched a free transport scheme to support the president ahead of 2027. He also reminded the president that he was the first APC governor to back Tinubu for the 2023 ticket and originated the slogan, If Tinubu can fix Lagos, Tinubu can fix Nigeria. Despite his grievance, Ayade stepped down, pledging to support all APC candidates.
We warned them. We told them that loyalty to a man who does not return loyalty is a one-way street. But they did not listen. They thought that proximity to power was power itself. They mistook compliance for influence, and favours for favours returned. And now they are paying the price.
What History Teaches
The Senate's current predicament follows a well-documented pattern. Across different countries and different eras, the legislators who help entrench executive dominance are consistently among the first to be discarded. In Weimar Germany, the Reichstag passed the Enabling Act of 1933 by a vote of 444 to 94, handing Adolf Hitler sweeping powers. Within months, the Reichstag was reduced to a rubber stamp. Within years, its members were fleeing for their lives. In Venezuela, Nicolás Maduro sidelined the legislature after initial cooperation. In Hungary, Viktor Orbán consolidated parliamentary control. In Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan reshaped parliament after 2016.
The political scientist Juan Linz observed that the legislature that abdicates oversight does not become the executive's partner. It becomes the executive's hostage. Closer to home, Nigerian historian Dr. Usman Bugaje has noted similar patterns. When a legislature surrenders its constitutional role, it does not strengthen the executive. It weakens the entire democratic fabric. And the legislators who participate in that surrender are the first to be consumed by the very monster they helped create.
The Final Irony
The most revealing aspect of the Senate's Villa visit is not the rejection but the request itself. By asking for automatic tickets, senators effectively conceded that they cannot win primaries on their own. They admitted, implicitly and publicly, that their own constituents would not re-elect them if given a free choice. They admitted that their only path to a return ticket was through executive fiat. And when that fiat was denied, they were left with nothing.
As Senator Ali Ndume, one of the few voices of conscience in the chamber, once said, When you surrender your powers, don't expect to get them back. He also said, A legislature of ghosts cannot check a president. Those words now read like an epitaph for the 10th Senate.
A Warning to Those Yet to Fall
To the politicians who have not yet fallen, who still hold their seats and their ambitions, let this be a warning. The same man who empowered you can and will discard you. The same governors who are today selecting their preferred candidates will tomorrow be discarded by the same forces they now wield. Power in Nigeria's current dispensation flows in only one direction, upward, toward the man at the top. And that man, as we have now seen, does not share power. He hoards it. He uses it. And when you are no longer useful, he throws you away.
Do not make the mistake of thinking that your loyalty will be rewarded. Do not make the mistake of thinking that your compliance will be reciprocated. The senators who lost their tickets, the lawmakers who are now threatening to defect, the former governors who have been ordered to abandon their ambitions, they all thought the same thing. They all believed that if they served the president faithfully, he would serve them in return. They were wrong. And now they are paying for their miscalculation with their political lives.
How Many More Will Fall to the People's Anger?
But the senators are not the only ones who will pay a price. The people of Nigeria have watched this political theatre with growing disgust. They have seen their representatives grovel, surrender, and then beg for mercy. They have seen their voices silenced, their votes nullified, and their democratic rights sold for a plate of political porridge. And they are angry.
How many more will fall to the people's anger? That question is not directed at the senators. It is directed at the president, at the governors, at the political class that has turned the National Assembly into a retirement home for tired executives and a slaughterhouse for incumbents who dared to hope. The people are watching. And the people are remembering.
When the 2027 elections come, and they will come, the anger that is now simmering beneath the surface will boil over. And when it does, no amount of Electoral Act amendments, no removal of certificate forgery from election petition grounds, no punitive financial penalties on petitioners, will protect those who have betrayed the public trust.
The senators who played themselves are not the only ones who will pay the price. The president who looked away will also face a reckoning. And the governors who are now celebrating their victories over incumbents will soon discover that the same knife that cuts their opponents can also cut them.
Conclusion
The Senate played itself. Forty-five per cent of its members paid the price. Tinubu looked away. And the people are watching. How many more will fall to the people's anger? We do not yet know. But we can say this with certainty: when the fall comes, it will be hard, it will be fast, and it will be final.
I have always said that those who help entrench a dictatorship will always be its first victims. The senators of the 10th National Assembly have proven me right. They surrendered their oversight. They surrendered their dignity. And in the end, they surrendered their tickets. They have no one to blame but themselves.
As for the rest of us, we watch, we wait, and we remember. Because in a democracy, the ultimate check on power is not the legislature. It is not the judiciary. It is not the press. It is the people. And the people, as the senators are about to learn, have long memories and heavy hands with empty stomachs.
Mohammed Bello Doka is the author of the April 24, 2026, article, The Senate Played Itself: How Bola Ahmed Tinubu Used Them, Then Dumped Them. He can be reached via [email protected].
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