by Mohammed Bello Doka
15 May, 2027
There is a particular kind of political tragedy reserved for those who build a weapon so sharp they forget it can be turned against them. The All Progressives Congress is living that tragedy. Across Nigeria’s thirty-six states and the Federal Capital Territory, the party is locked in a civil war of its own making. It is a war fought not against the opposition but against itself. And the battlefield is the very process meant to produce its candidates. The crisis of consensus versus direct primaries has become the monster that now threatens to consume the party’s architects.
The trouble began quietly, as all great trouble does. In early 2022, the Electoral Act allowed political parties three legitimate pathways to nominate candidates: direct primaries, indirect primaries, and consensus. That legal trinity provided flexibility. It allowed parties to adapt to local realities. But the APC-led National Assembly saw an opportunity. By early 2026, the Electoral Act was amended. The amendment stripped away indirect primaries. Only two options remained direct primaries or consensus. On paper, the law applied equally to all parties. In practice, it was a trap. Removing indirect primaries meant abolishing the delegate system. That system had been the lifeblood of smaller parties. It was cost effective. It was manageable. The new law forced every party into either a costly, logistically draining direct primary or an opaque consensus process widely accused of breeding godfather politics. The opposition protested. The Inter Party Advisory Council rejected the act and threatened an election boycott. They called it a violation of constitutional rights. But the APC brushed aside the objections with the ruthless confidence of a party that believed it could impose its will on the political space.
The ancient Greek philosopher Thucydides wrote that the strong do what they can and the weak suffer what they must. The APC acted as the strong. It assumed it could buy everyone. It assumed it could dominate the space. It assumed that by altering the legal architecture, it would cripple the opposition while preserving its own internal coherence. That assumption is now shattering in real time. What the party failed to anticipate was that the same law that discomfited the opposition would become a noose around its own neck. The party abused one of the most important laws of coalition politics the principle of the minimum winning coalition. In its arrogance, it forgot that every rule designed to weaken an enemy can, under the right pressure, destabilise the ruler.
Consider the irony. The senators who pushed through this amendment with ruthless abundance are now becoming victims of the very governors who were their main rivals. The men who altered the electoral landscape to protect their interests are watching helplessly as governors deploy the new rules to sideline them. In state after state, the story is the same. Governors who once chafed under the authority of party elders are now using the crisis of primaries to assert control. They are pushing consensus lists. They are anointing successors. And the senators who once lorded over them are being forced to fight for their political survival. The beast is indeed turning on its masters.
Take a journey across the federation. In the North Central, Benue State is a war zone. The Secretary to the Government of the Federation, George Akume, attempted to force a consensus built on automatic tickets for incumbents, including Governor Hyacinth Alia. The governor rejected the proposal as a naked power grab. The party splintered. Parallel congresses were held. Only a peace deal in early May stopped a total collapse, but direct primaries are now the only escape route from the impasse. In Kwara, the famous O To Ge movement that unseated the Saraki dynasty now accuses Governor AbdulRahman AbdulRazaq of elite capture. His preferred successor is being resisted, and the infighting is so severe that fears of a Bukola Saraki comeback have resurfaced. In Nasarawa, Governor Abdullahi Sule publicly endorsed Senator Ahmed Aliyu Wadada as his successor without consulting party elders. Former Governor Umaru Tanko Al Makura rejected the move. Ex IGP Mohammed Adamu Abubakar accused Sule of plotting to subvert the primaries. The party abandoned consensus and retreated to direct primaries.
In the North East, the collapse of anointed succession is complete. In Gombe, Governor Inuwa Yahaya announced Jamilu Ishaku Gwamna as the consensus governorship candidate. The reaction was immediate and fierce. A rebel alliance of high profile politicians including former minister Isa Ali Pantami and Senator Danjuma Goje openly rebelled. The rebellion forced the governor to announce a retreat to direct primaries. In Taraba, Governor Agbu Kefas, a recent defector from the PDP, attempted to impose consensus committees to handpick candidates. The entire APC media team in the state signed an open letter rejecting the process. Former minister Saleh Mamman formally rejected the plan and moved to court. In Yobe, Governor Mai Mala Buni, himself a former APC national chairman, staked his political capital on endorsing Baba Mallam Wali as consensus candidate. Six major aspirants, including a sitting senator and a former Inspector General of Police, united against him. Buni backed down. He publicly stated that if consensus fails, the party would adopt direct primaries.
In the North West, the situation is equally explosive. In Kaduna, the party’s attempt to broker a consensus for the Kaduna Central senatorial ticket collapsed. Shehu Sani, Yusuf Zailani, and Shettima Yerima are locked in a three way heavyweight showdown. Governor Uba Sani is accused of running proxy campaigns for all three. In Kano, former governor Ibrahim Shekarau was controversially endorsed as consensus candidate for Kano Central. Hundreds of women loyal to businessman Abdulsalam Zaura protested. The reconciliation mechanism pushed by the governor was largely rejected. In Katsina, Governor Dikko Radda maintains a hardline stance backing direct primaries yet is accused of intense candidate imposition. In Jigawa, a cold war between Governor Umar Namadi and his predecessor Mohammed Badaru Abubakar has triggered a mass exodus of high profile members, including former senators and seventeen former local government chairmen.
The South South is not spared. In Delta, the entry of Governor Sheriff Oborevwori and his massive PDP bloc into the APC has triggered a founders versus newcomers war. Legacy members accuse the new entrants of hijacking party structures and running closed door consensus arrangements. In Rivers, the proxy war between FCT Minister Nyesom Wike and Governor Siminalayi Fubara has completely paralyzed the party. There are two factions, two secretariats, two party executives. Two of everything. The screening committee is now the arbiter of power. In Edo, Governor Monday Okpebholo’s attempt to push a consensus list failed spectacularly as multiple aspirants refused to step down, accusing him of imposition.
The South West offers no respite. In Lagos, the Mandate Movement formally accused the Justice Forum of hijacking the selection process and convening secret meetings to impose consensus candidates. The state chairman denied any plot, but the crisis exposed a deep intra party power struggle. In Ogun, Governor Dapo Abiodun was endorsed as the consensus candidate for Ogun East Senate at a meeting from which Senator Gbenga Daniel was barred. Daniel purchased nomination forms to challenge the arrangement. In Oyo, mass street protests erupted at the APC secretariat in Ibadan with placards reading Say No to Imposition and Direct Primary is the Answer. In Ondo, Governor Lucky Aiyedatiwa attempted a full purge, endorsing twelve National Assembly candidates, only two of whom are incumbents. The National Working Committee rejected the governor’s consensus list and forced a direct primary. Reports of thugs flooding communities have raised fears of violence.
The South East tells a similar story of integration crisis. In Abia, Deputy Speaker Benjamin Kalu publicly declared that no aspirant would be favoured. In Ebonyi, an intense power struggle is ongoing between Governor Francis Nwifuru and Minister David Umahi. The state party leadership faulted the minister’s stance on consensus. In Anambra, APC founding members are protesting the hijacking of the party’s structure by recent PDP defectors. In Imo, Governor Hope Uzodimma is leading a rival faction that split the Progressive Governors Forum.
The National Working Committee initially preferred the consensus route. It was seen as less cumbersome. It would preserve party cohesion. Some governors favoured it as a way to endorse preferred successors. But these attempts were widely seen not as unity but as imposition. Protests erupted in Oyo, Gombe, and Kano. The NWC then performed a strategic retreat. It shifted to direct primaries for many races. Election materials were distributed at the last minute. But that shift intensified the crises rather than resolving them. The Roman philosopher Seneca once observed that fortune has no loyalty. The APC is learning that lesson.
President Bola Tinubu has watched this unfolding disaster with visible alarm. In a public appeal, he called on APC faithful not to bring down the roof. That phrase bring down the roof is revealing. It is not the language of a leader who believes his party is in fine fettle. It is the language of a leader who sees the cracks spreading across the ceiling and fears the entire structure might collapse. The president acknowledged the dangers. He appealed for fairness, peace, and unity. He asked that the primaries serve as a referendum on the party’s unity. But appeals alone cannot heal structural fractures. The president’s intervention, while necessary, underscores the depth of the crisis. When the leader of a ruling party must publicly plead with his own members to stop tearing the house down, the party is in trouble.
The APC’s current predicament is a classic case of what political scientists call the law of unintended consequences. The party believed it could rewrite the rules to suit its interests. It thought it could impose its will on the people. It thought it could buy everyone by dominating the space. But as the British philosopher John Stuart Mill warned, a party that abandons the spirit of fair play in favour of raw power eventually finds that power is a two edged sword. The APC is now bearing the weight of its own excesses. The governors who are using the new rules to sideline senators are the same governors the party once relied on to deliver votes. The senators who are being pushed aside are the same senators who helped amend the Electoral Act. The party is eating itself.
Political analyst and opinion moulder Dr. Tunji Ogunyemi recently noted that the APC’s crisis is not a failure of process but a failure of character. You cannot build a coalition on the principle of domination and expect it to survive, he argued. The minimum winning coalition theory suggests that parties thrive when they accommodate enough interests to win while excluding enough to maintain coherence. The APC has swung too far in the direction of exclusion. It has alienated its own members. It has turned its internal selection processes into gladiatorial contests. And now it is reaping the whirlwind.
Another expert, Professor Adeleke Adegbami, observed that the party’s reliance on consensus has always been a fiction. Consensus implies voluntary agreement. What the APC has been practising is imposition dressed in borrowed robes. When the grassroots resist, the party panics and retreats to direct primaries. But direct primaries require logistics, resources, and trust in the electoral process. The APC has none of those in sufficient measure. So it lurches from one failed method to another, leaving a trail of defections, court cases, and violence behind it.
The tragedy is that this crisis was entirely avoidable. The APC could have left the Electoral Act untouched. It could have allowed parties to choose their own methods. It could have focused on governance rather than manipulation. But hubris is a powerful drug. The party convinced itself that it could control the political environment. It forgot that in a democracy, control is an illusion. The voters have the final say. And the voters are watching. They see a party that cannot agree on its own candidates. They see governors fighting senators. They see senators fighting their own party. They see a president pleading with his faithful not to bring down the roof. That is not the image of a party ready to govern. That is the image of a party in its death throes.
This moment of chaos, however, is not just a crisis for the APC. It is a golden opportunity for the opposition. Leaders of the Peoples Democratic Party, the Labour Party, the New Nigeria Peoples Party, and all other opposition platforms must take this chance with both hands. They must unite themselves without delay. They must grab this opportunity before the APC finds a way to patch its roof. They must avoid costly disagreements and reach an agreement that carries everyone along. A divided opposition cannot defeat a wounded ruling party. But a united opposition, offering a clear alternative, can walk through the door that the APC has accidentally left open. History does not forgive those who sleep when the fortress of their adversary begins to crumble.
Beyond the high profile battles of governors and senators, there is a deeper engine driving this crisis. The APC forgot that without primaries, most of its foot soldiers and party leaders at various levels will be sidelined. These are the men and women who know the party. They know the wards. They know the polling units. They have bled for the APC. And they will not sit quietly while a handful of elites decide everything behind closed doors. Aspirants and governors have raised a lot of money. Huge sums have changed hands. Agents have been hired. Logistics have been paid for. These foot soldiers will instigate for a primary and will never allow any peaceful resolution because that is the only way they will benefit. Peace means no voting. No voting means no money. No money means no reward for their labour. So they fan the embers of crisis. They circulate rumours. They mobilise against consensus. They are not enemies of the party. They are its foot soldiers acting rationally in their own interest. And the party has no one to blame but itself for creating a system where chaos pays better than order.
Then there are the media influencers and the data boys. They have built entire careers on the back of political conflict. Without crisis, they have nothing to analyse. Nothing to spin. Nothing to amplify. They will never allow any peaceful resolution because that is also their lifeline. Every breakdown of consensus talks, every leaked memo, every shouting match at a party secretariat is content. It is engagement. It is revenue. It is relevance. The data boys deploy their algorithms to push trending hashtags that deepen divisions. The influencers trade in outrage because outrage sells. A quiet, orderly, unanimous consensus primary would starve them of oxygen. So they will do everything in their power to keep the pot boiling. They are not neutral observers. They are stakeholders in the crisis. And as long as the APC remains divided, they remain employed.
The philosopher George Santayana famously said that those who cannot remember the past are condemned to repeat it. The APC would do well to remember the fates of previous ruling parties that tore themselves apart over internal selection battles. The old NPN, the SDP, the ANPP, all of them collapsed under the weight of their own contradictions. The APC is following the same path. The consensus versus direct primaries crisis is not a technical disagreement. It is a symptom of a deeper rot. It is a symptom of a party that has lost its way. A party that values power over principle. A party that mistakes noise for strength.
The coming weeks will be critical. The party’s presidential primary is scheduled for May 25, 2026. Between now and then, the APC must decide whether it wants to survive or implode. The governors and senators locked in battle must recognise that they are not fighting for supremacy. They are fighting for the soul of their party. And if they cannot find a way to reconcile, they will hand victory to the opposition on a silver platter.
But here is the larger truth that this crisis lays bare. This is not only a major blow to President Tinubu’s reelection prospects. It is a major blow to his planned one party state that would rule ad infinitum. The president has long been accused of harbouring ambitions to shrink the democratic space, to swallow the opposition, and to entrench a single ruling party that would make Nigeria a de facto one party state. That ambition now lies in ruins. If the president’s strategy cannot tame the APC, how can it tame Nigerians? The APC was supposed to be his instrument. The party was supposed to be his obedient machine. But that machine is now eating its own gears. It cannot even control its governors. It cannot even manage its own primaries. It cannot even keep its senators from turning on each other. If the APC cannot be tamed by the very man who leads it, then the idea of taming the entire nation is a fantasy.
President Tinubu is beatable. The current trends prove that he is vulnerable and can be defeated. The opposition, if it gets its act together, faces an APC that is bleeding from every pore. Voters are watching. They see a party that cannot agree on who its candidates are. They see a president who pleads with his own members not to bring down the roof. They see governors and senators at war. They see foot soldiers who profit from chaos. They see influencers who thrive on division. This is not the image of an invincible ruling party. This is the image of a giant with feet of clay. And giants with feet of clay have fallen before. The question is not whether the APC is in trouble. The question is whether the opposition is wise enough to capitalise. And whether Nigerians are ready to believe that change is possible.
As a final word, consider the wisdom of Niccolo Machiavelli. The Italian political philosopher wrote that the first method for estimating the intelligence of a ruler is to look at the men he has around him. The APC’s leadership must look at the men and women around them. They see division. They see anger. They see defections. They see court cases. They see violence. If that is the company they keep, then the verdict on their intelligence is already written. The beast they created is indeed turning on its masters. Whether it devours them or is tamed depends entirely on what they do in the next few days. But the clock is ticking. And the roof is already cracking it remain to be seen if it falls or falters.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
Abuja Network News
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