By Mohammed Bello Doka
5 May, 2026.
Stop. Do not scroll past this headline. Breathe in what is written—because what stares back at you is the single greatest threat to the survival of our fragile democracy since the handover in 1999.
The numbers are not opinion. They are not ethnic sentiment. They are not propaganda. The numbers are 18 and 10. Between 1999 and 2027, Southern Nigeria will have occupied the presidency for eighteen years. The North will have held it for only ten. The gap is eight years—an entire Olympic cycle of political imbalance.
Yet the political establishment, with a straight face, insists it is the South's "turn" again in 2027. For the North to lose eight years of leadership and be told to wait another four is not political rotation—it is a permanent coronation.
This op-ed is not a diatribe. It is a plea for arithmetic. For justice. For the soul of a pact that has held Nigeria together for a quarter-century.
Let us begin at the beginning.
The Birth of a Gentleman's Agreement
Zoning did not begin with President Muhammadu Buhari. It did not begin with Bola Tinubu. It began in the ashes of the annulled June 12, 1993 presidential election, when the political elite of the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) agreed to rotate the presidency between North and South as a mechanism to heal ethnic distrust and prevent national collapse. It was a gentleman's agreement born of trauma—the annulment of Chief MKO Abiola's victory, the death of Sani Abacha, and the near-dissolution of the federation.
As founding PDP member Barnabas Gemade recalled: "In 1999, we zoned the presidency to the South and specifically to the South West because of the June 12 election. The South West was complaining about the cancellation of the election, marginalization of their people, and we needed to solve the problem."
This was not a constitutional provision. It was not enshrined in law. It was a gentleman's agreement—and gentlemen, by definition, keep their word. But what happens when the agreement becomes a weapon to permanently sideline one half of the country?
The Audacity of Revised History
Let us strip away the political mascara and look at the unvarnished arithmetic, presidency by presidency:
· Olusegun Obasanjo (South): 8 years (1999–2007). A full two terms. Not disputed.
· Umaru Musa Yar’Adua (North): 2 years (2007–2010). Cut short by the cruel hand of fate.
· Goodluck Jonathan (South): 6 years (2010–2015). Every single day of Yar’Adua's unexpired term after his death added to the South's column, not the North's.
· Muhammadu Buhari (North): 8 years (2015–2023). The North's longest single stretch.
· Bola Ahmed Tinubu (South): 4 years by 2027 (2023–2027).
SOUTH TOTAL: 8 (Obasanjo) + 6 (Jonathan) + 4 (Tinubu) = 18 years.
NORTH TOTAL: 2 (Yar’Adua) + 8 (Buhari) = 10 years.
The gap is eight years. If zoning were a sporting competition, the losing team would be awarded the next round. Instead, the winning team is being handed the trophy again.
The Jonathan-Yar’Adua Precedent: A Sword That Cuts Both Ways
Here is where the argument becomes intellectually dishonest. The Presidency, through Special Adviser Bayo Onanuga, has argued that the North's shorter tenure was due to the "untimely death of President Umaru Yar’Adua, which led to President Jonathan’s succession"—a so-called "accidental breach" that does not invalidate the rotation arrangement.
Let us accept that premise for a moment.
If the North's "accidental loss" of two years does not entitle the North to compensatory time, then by the same logic, the North's intentional loss of eight years in the arithmetic gap should also entitle the North to nothing. But that is not how fairness works.
The Yar’Adua-Jonathan succession did not merely set a precedent—it created an iron law. If power could shift to the South after just two years of Yar’Adua, then by that same immutable logic, power must return to the North after four years of Tinubu. You cannot claim the exception when it benefits the South and the rule when it benefits the North.
As former Vice President Atiku Abubakar put it bluntly: "If you are talking about zoning… the South has governed for 18 years and the North 10. So who is in a deficit, if you want to be fair?"
"Who Is in the Deficit?"
The deficit is stark and undeniable. Even within the ruling camp, the question has been posed: "The South has governed for 18 years and the North for 10, so who is in the deficit?"
The answer is clear. The North is in a deficit of eight years.
Not because the North has not produced capable leaders—Buhari's eight years stand as testament to northern capacity. Not because the North has not sacrificed for national unity—in 1999, the North conceded power to the South-West to heal the wounds of June 12. And not because the North lacks electoral muscle—the region remains the country's most formidable voting bloc.
The deficit exists because of mathematics. Simple, unforgiving mathematics.
Allowing the South to produce the president in 2027 would not be a rotation—it would be a permanent amendment to the zoning bylaw. It would tell the North: your sacrifice in 1999, your acceptance of Yar’Adua's truncated term, your patience with Jonathan's six years means nothing. The South has had 18 years, but somehow, it's still your turn to wait.
Counterpoints and Counter-Counterpoints
The counterargument, articulated by figures like Shehu Sani, is that the North should support the South-West to complete eight years under Tinubu for "peace, unity, and the survival of our democracy."
With respect to Senator Sani, the North did support the South. When Jonathan assumed office after Yar’Adua's death, the North did not plunge the nation into crisis. When Jonathan ran for a full term in 2011—technically breaking the zoning understanding—the North accepted it. When Buhari completed eight years and handed over to Tinubu, the North accepted it.
But acceptance is not endorsement of perpetual subordination.
The North also hears the argument that zoning is not constitutional, that it is merely an informal arrangement. Atiku himself has acknowledged that "the only political party that has a zoning provision in its constitution is the PDP." But if an informal arrangement can be used to exclude the North in 2027, why was it used to include the South in 1999, 2010, and 2023?
Selective application of a rule is not governance—it is exploitation.
The Verdict of History
Make no mistake: Nigeria does not belong to any single region. The South has had its historic run since 1999, largely uninterrupted except for Buhari's eight years. The North, through the will of the people in 2015 and 2019, breathed life back into the zoning arrangement after Jonathan's tenure.
To shut the North out again in 2027 is to declare that the zoning agreement is dead, that equity is a lie, and that certain regions are more equal than others. That is a recipe for national dislocation—the kind of dislocation that tore us apart in 1966, in 1983, and in 1993.
This is not about ethnicity. It is about arithmetic. This is not about domination. It is about balance. This is not about entitlement. It is about the founding promise of our democracy—that power belongs to all Nigerians, not just those who happen to be in the right region at the right time.
A Call to the Conscience of the Nation
Nigeria stands at a precipice. The choice before us is not between North and South—it is between justice and convenience, between fairness and power, between the spirit of the zoning agreement and its letter.
The North does not ask for charity. The North does not ask for permanent power. The North does not ask for the South to be banished from government.
The North asks for a simple, undeniable mathematical correction. The North has governed for 10 years. The South has governed for 18. Let the next presidency—be it in 2027 or 2031—reflect that imbalance and restore the equilibrium that has kept our democracy breathing.
If you believe in Nigeria, you believe in fairness. And if you believe in fairness, you know: 18 to 10 is not a rotation—it's a robbery.
The North says: Not this time. Not again.
Justice is not a region. Justice is a number. And the number is 8.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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