by Mohammed Bello Doka
24 May, 2026.
There is a man in Nigerian politics today who moves like a magician who has forgotten the trick but refuses to drop the wand. Senator Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, the leader of the Kwankwasiyya movement and presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party in 2023, is once again on the political stage, speaking in riddles, courting Peter Obi, flirting with the North, and hoping that no one notices the obvious. But the obvious is this: Kwankwaso is not confused. He is not a bumbling politician caught between loyalties. He is a master player, and the only person on that stage who does not know the script is Peter Obi. The question that should trouble every Nigerian voter, every analyst, and every Northerner who still believes in political integrity is simple—who is Kwankwaso deceiving? The answer may be everyone. And the only man who will not lose is Kwankwaso himself.
Let us begin with the truth that Kwankwaso knows but will never say aloud. He cannot deliver the North for Peter Obi. Not in 2023, not now, not ever. In the last presidential election, when Kwankwaso ran as the candidate of the NNPP, he won only one state—Kano. That is it. Not Jigawa, the state that shares cultural, historical, and geographical proximity with Kano. Not Katsina, not Kaduna, not Zamfara. Just Kano. And even in Kano, his victory was as much a product of local sentiment as it was a protest against the establishment. The North did not rise for Kwankwaso. The North barely acknowledged him beyond the gates of his home state. So if he could not deliver the North for himself, what makes anyone believe he can deliver the North for Peter Obi? Yet Kwankwaso has reportedly agreed to be Obi’s deputy in 2027. And Peter Obi, sincere and well-meaning, appears to believe this arrangement is a pathway to victory. But Obi is living in a fool’s paradise. The great Chinese military strategist Sun Tzu wrote in The Art of War, “If you know the enemy and know yourself, you need not fear the result of a hundred battles.” Kwankwaso knows himself. He knows the North. He knows exactly what he is doing. Obi knows neither. That is not strategy. That is a setup.
And perhaps that is the most tragic part of this entire drama—Kwankwaso is not deceiving himself. He knows exactly what he is doing. Even if he has agreed to be Obi’s deputy, deep down he knows that winning the presidency with Peter Obi is a tall order. A very tall order. The numbers do not lie. Peter Obi’s base is predominantly in the South-East and parts of the South-South and South-West. Kwankwaso’s base, such as it is, is a shrinking circle around Kano. To imagine that these two fragments can form a majority is to ignore the arithmetic of Nigerian elections. And now add another layer of complexity: by 2027, the African Democratic Congress will most likely field a Northern candidate. Add to that the inevitability of Atiku Abubakar, who will run again and who the Northern electorate knows well. The odds are clear—Northerners will most likely favor Atiku over any arrangement that Kwankwaso brokers with Obi. Kwankwaso knows this. Obi does not. The Indian philosopher and political thinker Chanakya once said, “The secret of politics is not to put all your eggs in one basket, but to put the right eggs in the right basket.” Kwankwaso is putting his eggs in every basket. He will be Obi’s deputy in public. He will be Tinubu’s hidden hand in private. He will be the North’s reluctant son on camera. And when the dust settles, no matter who wins, Kwankwaso will be standing.
Now consider the layers of this deception. Kwankwaso is playing a game so intricate that even seasoned political observers struggle to track it. He is deceiving the North. How? By making noise about an Obi alliance while quietly ensuring that the North does not actually follow him. He does not want the North to believe he is working for Tinubu directly, so he puts on the costume of an opposition leader. But look at the facts on the ground. Kwankwaso allegedly allowed his son-in-law, Abba Kabir Yusuf, to negotiate with President Tinubu. His own son-in-law. The current deputy governor of Kano State is his relative. Major political offices in Kano are allegedly manned by his family members. This is not a political movement. This is a family enterprise disguised as a revolution. Kwankwaso is deceiving the North into thinking he is fighting for their emancipation when in reality he is consolidating a dynastic empire. The North believes they have a champion. They have a landlord.
At the same time, Kwankwaso is deceiving Tinubu. He cannot appear to directly oppose the president, because that would close doors. So he plays the role of the loyal opposition, the man who could cause trouble but chooses not to. He allows his family members to negotiate. He keeps channels open. He never fully commits to destroying Tinubu’s prospects in the North. Why would he? If Tinubu wins, Kwankwaso can claim credit for not being an enemy. If Tinubu loses, Kwankwaso can claim credit for being a thorn. Either way, head or tail, Kwankwaso wins. The Arab philosopher Ibn Khaldun wrote in the Muqaddimah, “The past resembles the future more than one drop of water resembles another.” What worked in 2023—the Muslim-Muslim ticket that saved Tinubu—will not work this time around. But Kwankwaso does not need it to work. He only needs his own game to work. And his game is simple: never take a position from which you cannot retreat.
And then there is Peter Obi. Poor, sincere, earnest Peter Obi. He believes Kwankwaso is his deputy. He believes the North will follow. He believes that competence and character will triumph over tribal and religious calculus. That is noble. That is also naive. Kwankwaso is playing Obi like a lute. Obi is living in a fool’s paradise because he does not understand that Kwankwaso has never for one second believed in an Obi presidency. Kwankwaso wants leverage. He wants relevance. He wants to be the man that everyone must negotiate with. If Obi rises, Kwankwaso is his deputy. If Obi falls, Kwankwaso is his savior who tried. The Chinese philosopher Confucius said, “The man who moves a mountain begins by carrying away small stones.” Kwankwaso is carrying small stones toward every mountain. He does not care which mountain collapses.
Now consider the North-East and the Shettima factor. Vice President Kashim Shettima is seen today not as an asset but as a liability. The North does not look at him and see a leader; they see a spare tire, and worse, a flat tire that the North must replace. Shettima is from the same North-East geopolitical zone as Atiku Abubakar. And in 2023, Atiku won most of the North-East. That is not speculation. That is fact. So what happens when a North-East voter is asked to choose between Atiku, a familiar and formidable candidate from their own zone, and Shettima, a vice president widely viewed as politically impotent? The answer writes itself. Kwankwaso knows this. He also knows that the Muslim-Muslim ticket that worked for Tinubu in 2023 will not work in 2027. The North is restless. But Kwankwaso does not care. He is not trying to win the North for anyone. He is trying to make sure that no matter who wins the North, he is standing at the finish line with his hand out.
And then there is the Kwankwasiyya movement itself. It was once a formidable political vehicle, built on loyalty, patronage, and a cult-like following in Kano. But political movements, like rivers, change course. You cannot fool the North twice with the same slogan and the same faces. Kwankwaso is trying. He is on the media almost every day, speaking in measured tones, whitewashing Peter Obi, presenting him as a misunderstood patriot rather than a man whose past statements on religious tensions in the North remain unaddressed. The North is waiting for an answer to one crucial question: has Peter Obi reneged from his so-called religious war, or has he simply rebranded it? Kwankwaso speaks every day but never answers that question. He dances around it. He talks about competence, about youth, about restructuring. But the North listens with a skeptical ear. And still, Kwankwaso continues. Why? Because he does not need to convince the North. He only needs to keep the conversation alive until the election. After that, he does not care what happens to the North. Let the North burn to ashes. As long as Kwankwaso is not in the fire.
The Arabic saying goes, “The dogs bark, but the caravan moves on.” Kwankwaso can bark all day on television and radio, but the political caravan of the North is moving in a direction he does not control. That caravan is looking toward Atiku, toward a fresh Northern candidate from the ADC, and away from any arrangement that places a Southern candidate like Obi at the top. But Kwankwaso is not trying to control the caravan. He is trying to pick the pockets of everyone riding in it.
So we return to the original question. Who is Kwankwaso deceiving? Peter Obi? Yes. Tinubu? Yes. The North? Absolutely. Himself? Not at all. He knows the game. He is playing everyone to his own advantage. Obi is sincere and living in a fool’s paradise, but Kwankwaso is not a fool. He allegedly allowed his son-in-law to negotiate with Tinubu. He placed relatives in every major political office. He built a dynasty and called it a movement. He might be deceiving the North not to appear directly working for Tinubu. He might be deceiving Tinubu not to appear directly opposing him but working indirectly for him. At the end of the day, head Kwankwaso wins, tail Kwankwaso gains. The only person that will not lose is Kwankwaso. And he does not care who loses. Not Peter Obi. Not the North. Not even Tinubu. Let the North burn to ashes. Kwankwaso will be standing in the smoke, counting his gains.
Kwankwaso should be admired for his cunning if not for his conscience. He has studied the wisdom of Chanakya, who also said, “Before you start some work, always ask yourself three questions: Why am I doing it? What might the results be? Will it be successful?” Kwankwaso has answered those questions. He is doing it for himself. The results will benefit him. And it will be successful because he has defined success as his own survival. The time for pretending that Kwankwaso is a confused politician is over. He is not confused. He is calculating. The North is watching. Peter Obi is hoping. Tinubu is scheming. But Kwankwaso is laughing. And when the ashes settle after 2027, do not ask who won. Ask who is still standing. That man will be Kwankwaso.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
Abuja Network News
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