by Mohammed Bello Doka
In a year when Nigeria’s hospitals ran short of medicines, transport infrastructure decayed, and preventable deaths mounted, the Federal Government’s capital releases told a stark and troubling story: just ₦36 million reached the entire Federal Ministry of Health and Social Welfare in 2025; roughly 1%—about ₦2.57 billion—went to the Ministry of Transportation; yet ₦30 billion was released to Oyo State for relief after the Bodija explosion. The contrast is so sharp that it raises a profound question about national priorities under President Bola Tinubu’s “Renewed Hope” agenda. How does a country of more than 200 million people allocate crumbs to life-saving sectors while tens of billions flow to a single state disaster intervention?
The most unsettling confirmation of this imbalance came not from critics but from Tinubu’s own ministers. Health Minister Muhammad Ali Pate told the Senate Committee on Health in early 2026 that his ministry received only ₦36 million of its ₦218 billion 2025 capital appropriation, according to Premium Times and Punch. The ministry described this as a “constraint in appropriated funds disbursement,” but the human consequences are measurable: UNICEF’s 2024 Situation Analysis estimates 4.9 million Nigerian children in humanitarian need. National indicators remain grim—life expectancy 63.4 years (World Bank 2021); under-five mortality 104.9 per 1,000 (WHO); maternal mortality 993 per 100,000 (2023). Anaemia affects 55.1% of women aged 15–49; 31.5% of children under five are stunted; and only 39% of children 12–23 months are fully immunised (2024 NDHS). Adolescent births stand at 86 per 1,000 girls aged 15–19, antenatal care coverage at 63%, and skilled birth attendance at 46%. Against such a backdrop, the withheld ₦218 billion is not an abstract fiscal delay—it represents clinics unbuilt, vaccines unbought, and lives left unprotected. The Budget Office reinforced the pattern, reporting that by July 2025 only ₦834.80 billion of a ₦10.81 trillion pro-rata capital benchmark had been released (Punch), leaving the health system effectively stranded.
Transportation followed the same trajectory of neglect. Minister Saidu Ahmed Alkali disclosed during the 2026 budget defence that his ministry received only about 1%—approximately ₦2.57 billion of its ₦256.73 billion 2025 capital vote—according to TheCable and The Guardian. As a result, about 70% of projects rolled into 2026, freezing road and rail upgrades while fatalities continued to climb. National Bureau of Statistics data recorded 2,662 road crashes in Q1 2024 with 1,471 deaths, and 2,404 crashes in Q2 with 1,305 deaths. For 2023, the toll reached 10,604 crashes, 5,081 killed, and 30,873 injured (FRSC). Nigeria contributes heavily to Africa’s average road fatality rate of 19.6 per 100,000 (2021), with more than 2,776 deaths in the first half of 2024 alone. December peaks—averaging 1,091.5 monthly crash cases from 2013–2021—underline the systemic danger. Yet the sector responsible for reducing these deaths received barely a fraction of its approved funding.
Set against this national deprivation is the substantial allocation to Oyo State following the January 16, 2024 Bodija Estate explosion in Ibadan, caused by illegally stored explosives and damaging hundreds of homes. Oyo requested ₦100 billion; Tinubu approved ₦50 billion via an August 29, 2024 Accountant-General memo; and ₦30 billion was released on November 4, 2024 into the state’s infrastructure account, according to Punch and Guardian confirmations from aides to Governor Seyi Makinde. The remaining ₦20 billion remained withheld as of early 2026. Oyo itself spent ₦24.6 billion on relief, including ₦4.085–₦4.8 billion in victim compensation by June 2025, while the federal ₦30 billion reportedly sat unused. Thus, for an incident affecting a few hundred homes, tens of billions were available—even idle—while nationwide sectors critical to survival languished without funds.
Critics argue that this allocation pattern fits a broader geography of spending tilted toward the Southwest. The Lagos–Calabar Coastal Highway, a 700-km flagship of the Tinubu administration, carries a ₦7.5 billion-per-kilometre cost (Minister David Umahi, Sahara Reporters, October 2025), projecting roughly ₦15 trillion overall (Bloomberg, May 2024). Phase 1 financing alone reached $1.126 billion in December 2025 through First Abu Dhabi Bank and Afreximbank (State House). The Northern Elders Forum (Arise News, June 2025) and others cite its ₦1.344 trillion allocation, alongside ₦470.9 billion for Delta segments and ₦195 billion for the Lagos–Ibadan Expressway, as evidence of southern concentration. Tinubu also signed the South-West Development Commission into law on March 26, 2025 (Punch), channeling institutional funds into the region amid accusations of favoritism (African Democratic Congress, Arise News, September 2025). Additional Southwest projects include the Oyo–Ogbomoso–Ilorin road rehabilitation and Lagos bridges (TVC News, August 2025). Although the Federal Government maintains that the North-West received ₦5.97 trillion (ThisDay, September 2025), critics such as the NEF contend that coastal highway trillions contrast sharply with ₦252 billion for the Abuja–Kano route, reinforcing perceptions of imbalance.
The question that emerges is not merely fiscal but moral: what national calculus justifies a situation in which hospitals and highways—systems that safeguard millions—receive negligible releases while billions concentrate in regional projects and disaster funds? Former Ekiti Governor Kayode Fayemi’s May 2025 observation that no MDA received capital releases five months into 2025 reflects the broader revenue strain, with federal income around ₦10 trillion against higher projections (Finance Ministry). BudgIT likewise flagged irregularities in MDA capital breakdowns. Yet scarcity alone does not explain distribution choices. When limited funds are available, where they go reveals priorities.
Nigeria’s citizens deserve a budgeting system that reflects shared national need rather than perceived regional advantage. The 2025 capital releases—₦36 million to health, ₦2.57 billion to transport, ₦30 billion to a single state relief account—have become symbols of a deeper anxiety about equity in federal spending. Restoring confidence will require transparent release data, balanced infrastructure investment across regions, and demonstrable commitment to sectors that sustain life and mobility. Until then, the promise of “Renewed Hope” risks sounding less like a national programme and more like a regional one.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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