24 February, 2026
by Mohammed Bello Doka
In the cutthroat arena of Nigerian politics, where loyalty is currency and betrayal is the ultimate power play, President Bola Tinubu wields his blade with Machiavellian precision—slashing through allies the moment they outlive their usefulness, leaving a trail of discarded pawns in his wake. "Men are so simple and so much inclined to obey immediate needs that a deceiver will never lack victims for his deceptions," warned Niccolò Machiavelli in *The Prince*, and Tinubu embodies this ruthless philosophy, turning faithful servants into sacrificial lambs to safeguard his throne. Now, with Agence France-Presse's (AFP) explosive February 23, 2026, dagger thrust—exposing National Security Adviser Nuhu Ribadu's alleged multimillion-dollar ransom helicopter drop to Boko Haram—the question screams: Is Tinubu finally hurling his once-indispensable NSA into the dustbin of political expediency, especially as U.S. pressure mounts and French ties deepen?
The AFP bombshell couldn't be more damning: Ribadu, handpicked for his unyielding loyalty, allegedly orchestrated a $7 million payout (N40 million per hostage, totaling up to N2 billion or even N10 billion in inflated whispers) to free 230 Papiri schoolkids abducted November 21, 2025, from St. Mary's Catholic boarding school in Niger State—nearly 315 snatched, 50 escaping early, the rest "rescued" in staged releases by late December. Cash choppered to Boko Haram's Gwoza den for commander Ali Ngulde, who ducked into Cameroon for confirmation; two terrorists freed, including links to Sadiku's crew behind the 2022 Abuja-Kaduna train massacre. This brazen act shreds the 2022 Terrorism (Prevention) Act's 15-year prison hammer for ransom dealers—yet Ribadu's "negotiations" reek of state-sponsored terror funding, all while the DSS parrots "no ransoms paid."
But here's the killer twist: Just days before, on February 16, 2026, Tinubu lavished praise on Ribadu in Adamawa, dubbing him "honest, bold, courageous"—a cynical pat on the back before the plunge? The AFP leak erupted hours ahead of U.S. Treasury's Jonathan Burke touching down in Abuja to choke terrorist financing—perfect timing to irritate Donald Trump, who's bombing Nigerian militants and decrying Christian "persecution." Why a French agency? Tinubu's Macron mania—eight trips, 59 days in France by mid-2025, including a November 2024 state visit—screams collusion. Paris, smarting from Sahel ejections, craves Nigerian leverage; Tinubu needs investments. Is this Macron's subtle shove, or Tinubu's orchestrated hit to scapegoat Ribadu and appease Washington's hawks?
Ribadu's trapped in a no-win nightmare: Heads, he gets axed as the fall guy for a kidnapping plague that's devoured 4,777 souls in Tinubu's first year per SBM Intelligence, with N2.2 trillion in ransoms fueling the beast. Tails, he clings on, his loyalty chained by the very crime—ransom payments—that could land him 15 years, obliterating any political future. "Never depend on the arms of others," advised Baltasar Gracián in *The Art of Worldly Wisdom*, but Ribadu, politically irrelevant beyond Tinubu's shadow, has no army, no base—just blind devotion that's now his noose. Meanwhile, Tinubu wins every flip: Ditch Ribadu to dodge U.S. ire, or keep him muzzled, knowing exposure means mutual destruction.
This is Tinubu's signature: Use 'em, abuse 'em, dump 'em. As Robert Greene decrees in *The 48 Laws of Power*, "Crush your enemy totally"—but for allies? Crush when convenient. Exhibit A: Akinwunmi Ambode, Tinubu's 2015 Lagos governor pick, dumped ruthlessly in 2019 for Babajide Sanwo-Olu after whispers of disloyalty, his second-term dreams shattered despite stellar performance. Exhibit B: Rauf Aregbesola, 30 years of slavish service from NADECO trenches to Lagos corridors, betrayed when Tinubu sidelined him post-2023, leaving the ex-Interior Minister politically adrift. Exhibit Exhibit C: Betta Edu, the youthful Humanitarian Minister suspended January 2024 over N585 million fraud, her rapid rise and fall a stark warning—useful for optics, disposable when scandals erupt. And Abdullahi Umar Ganduje? Tinubu propped him as APC chairman despite dollar-stuffing videos, but whispers of probes loom—loyalty rewarded until it sours. Abubakar Badaru, Defence Minister, rides high now, but history screams: No one's safe. Even Babachir Lawal, ex-SGF and early Tinubu critic, blasts the regime's "sophisticated cabals" worse than Buhari's, his own grass-cutting ouster a prelude. Simon Lalong? Shunted to Labour Minister after gubernatorial ambitions fizzled.
El-Rufai's September 2025 broadside—accusing Ribadu of bandit sponsorship via billions in ransoms, food, incentives—now rings prophetic, vindicated by AFP leaks amid his own EFCC/ICPC torment: Nosebleed in detention, family access blocked, ₦432 billion probe as payback. If El-Rufai was dead right on ransoms—echoed in Kuriga's 287 kids (2024), Birnin Yauri's 25 girls (2025), Sokoto's 15 children, Kwara church raids, Borno abductions, Edo bridesmaids, Kaduna worshippers—what else? Phone-taps? Critic abductions? Fake rescues masking payoffs?
Tinubu's game thrives amid economic apocalypse: N10 trillion capital shortfalls, N58 trillion budgets wobbling, borrowings burying generations—yet billions vanish to terrorists and $7,000 bribes to media influencers spinning scandals away. "Always think of your power as a pyramid," Greene advises—Tinubu sits apex, allies mere bricks, replaceable. Ribadu's fate? Sealed. Dumped or damned, he's toast; Tinubu triumphs, untouchable. No denials hold: The French dagger has struck, and blood flows. Nigerians, wake up—before you're next!
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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