by Mohammed Bello Doka
As a concerned citizen deeply rooted in the North, I have watched Nigeria's fragile unity unravel thread by thread. Our great nation, forged in the fires of colonialism and held together by the blood of our forebears, now stands on the brink of collapse. The signs are everywhere: ethnic favoritism in appointments, skewed resource allocations, and a president whose past words echo doubts about "One Nigeria." The South's growing clamor for separation, fueled by traditional rulers and amplified by savvy youth on social media, is no longer a whisper—it's a roar. And as tensions build toward the 2027 elections, electoral disputes could ignite full-blown secession. This is not fear-mongering; it's a wake-up call for self-preservation. We must study Nigeria's potential breakup not as a distant nightmare, but as a real possibility we need to prepare for—today.
Let us start with history, because ignoring it dooms us to repeat its tragedies. The Biafran War of 1967-1970 remains a stark warning of how ethnic grievances can tear a nation apart. What began as Igbo marginalization after the 1966 coups escalated into a secessionist bid for the Republic of Biafra, costing 1-3 million lives, mostly from starvation. Foreign powers fueled the flames: France supplied arms worth $30 million through Gabon and Côte d'Ivoire to weaken British influence and secure oil deals. Israel provided military advisors, drawing parallels to their own struggles against persecution. Portugal, South Africa, and even Rhodesia backed Biafra with covert aid and pilots, aiming to counter anti-apartheid forces and Soviet ties. On the federal side, the UK armed Nigeria with 79-97% of its weapons to protect Shell-BP oil interests, while the Soviet Union delivered MiG fighters. Religious groups like Catholic-aligned Caritas and the Vatican airlifted aid to Biafra, framing it as a Christian-Muslim clash. This wasn't just internal strife—it was a proxy war where outsiders exploited our divisions for gain. Today, with global powers eyeing Nigeria's resources anew, a breakup could invite similar meddling, turning our land into a battleground once more.
Fast-forward to now, and the red flags under President Bola Tinubu's administration scream favoritism toward the Southwest, eroding the federation's foundation. Look at appointments: Over 70% of key security and economic roles have gone to Yoruba individuals, often from Lagos. The Chief of Defence Staff (Gen. Olufemi Oluyede), Chief of Army Staff (Lt. Gen. Waidi Shaibu), DSS Director-General (Adeola Ajayi), and Inspector-General of Police (Tunji Disu)—all Yoruba. Economic posts follow suit: CBN Governor Yemi Cardoso, FIRS Chairman Zacch Adedeji, EFCC Chairman Ola Olukoyede—all Southwestern. Critics like Omoyele Sowore and Sen. Ali Ndume call it "Yorubanization," worse than Buhari's Northern leanings. Northern groups like the League of Northern Democrats decry the NNPC board's Southwestern dominance. This isn't balance—it's a power grab that marginalizes our 55% of the population.
Resource allocations tell the same story. The ₦500 billion palliative fund post-fuel subsidy removal was meant for all, but Northern states like Zamfara claimed exclusion while APC Southwest states got extra shares. By mid-2024, disbursements hit ₦570 billion across states (average ₦15.83 billion each), plus ₦30 billion per state for food security. Yet, Lagos accessed an additional ₦10 billion in food aid, while Kano faced delays. Budgets amplify this: In 2024's ₦28.78 trillion budget, capital expenditure was ₦10 trillion, with roads at ₦1.013 trillion—Southwest got ₦1.394 trillion (137.6%), Southeast ₦205 billion (20.2%), Northwest ₦105 billion (10.4%). The 2025 ₦49.7 trillion budget (later ₦43.56 trillion) allocated ₦15.9 trillion capital, with Northwest claiming ₦5.97 trillion, but critics say it's inflated by old projects while new Southwest ones like Lagos-Calabar Highway got ₦1.06 trillion fresh. For 2026's ₦58.18 trillion, capital hits ₦26.08 trillion, yet Northern agriculture (70% of national food) gets under 20% of ₦1.44 trillion. Projects skew too: Lagos bridges ₦120 billion, Lagos-Calabar ₦1.67 trillion, while Abuja-Kano Road lags at ₦200-300 billion. Rabiu Kwankwaso calls it "Lagos Lokan," and the Northern Elders Forum agrees—this is marginalization that breeds resentment.
But the most alarming red flag is the South's surging support for separation, led by figures like Nnamdi Kanu and Sunday Igboho, who enjoy massive backing from their people. Kanu, IPOB leader, pushes for Biafra's revival, rooted in historical grievances and current exclusion. Traditional leaders like HRH Igwe Lawrence Agubuzu, Chairman of the South East Council of Traditional Rulers, boldly urged Tinubu at the February 17, 2026, National Traditional and Religious Leaders Summit to release Kanu unconditionally, comparing him to Igboho and warning of youth unrest. The United Igbo Elders Council praised this as "dignified and statesmanlike." Igboho, cleared from the wanted list in January 2026 without court process—Tinubu's silent complicity—now awaits the "Aare Akoni Oodua Worldwide" title from the Ooni of Ife, recognizing his Yoruba Nation push. This normalization is dangerous: Tinubu sets a precedent by freeing a separatist without accountability, echoing his 1997 THISDAY quote, "I don’t believe in one Nigeria," and his 2023 BBC remark that Lagos is a "modest state that could be a country on its own." If a president questions unity, why shouldn't others?
This support isn't just elite—it's grassroots, exploding on social media where Southern youth craft tailored, militant messages. X posts from users like @mariolexxx speculate Tinubu might release Kanu for 2027 votes, while @dangbanamanager notes a shift in anti-Igbo online attacks to court Southeastern support. Surveys show 70-80% Igbo support for secession, per Afrobarometer 2017-2022 data. Yoruba Nation calls gain traction amid insecurity, with viral videos praising Igboho's "courage." Contrast this with Arewa youth: too many waste time on TikTok dancing, making skits, and bathing in mud for "comedy" laughs, while Southern peers post strategic calls for self-determination, equity, and unity against "Northern dominance." Wake up, Northern youth! Your memes won't save us when divisions deepen.
And divisions are being sown deliberately. Current attempts brew chaos between Hausa and Fulani, pitting brothers against each other over herder-farmer clashes, amplified by media framing Fulani as "invaders." Between Muslim and Christian Northerners, Boko Haram's shadow and banditry fuel mistrust, with Southern voices exploiting it. Remember the 2023 press conference by Southern stakeholders, including Ohanaeze Ndigbo and Afenifere figures, declaring they disagree with including the Middle Belt in "Northern Nigeria," calling it a forced amalgamation that ignores Christian-majority states like Benue and Plateau. This is divide-and-rule: by excluding the Middle Belt, they weaken our collective voice, turning North against itself.
As 2027 looms, these tensions could explode. Rising anger over appointments and budgets breeds distrust; electoral crises—like disputed results or violence—might escalate to secession calls, as seen in 1967. If Tinubu seeks re-election amid Southern favoritism, Northern backlash could fracture alliances, pushing regions to go solo. Things might start with protests, turn to boycotts, and end in declarations of independence. We infer this possibility from patterns: Igboho's quiet clearance normalizes separatism, Kanu's detention fuels agitation, and Tinubu's "I don't believe in one Nigeria" history suggests he's fine with a looser federation—or none at all.
This is why we must prepare—not to break Nigeria, but for self-preservation if it breaks. Our strengths are immense: We hold 55% of the population, vast arable land producing 70% of food, minerals like gold and lithium, and a rich Islamic heritage fostering unity through faith. Leverage our numbers in politics, agriculture for food security, and cultural ties with Sahel nations for trade. But weaknesses loom: Internal divisions (Hausa-Fulani, Muslim-Christian), economic dependence on federal oil shares, and youth disengagement. To navigate, unite first—convene Arewa summits bridging ethnic/religious gaps, invest in education/tech to empower youth beyond skits, diversify economy with agro-processing and mining, build regional alliances, and stockpile resources for autonomy. Study Sudan and Ethiopia's breakups: Preparation saved lives. Prepare now, or perish divided.
In conclusion, Nigeria's breakup is a real possibility, inferred from historical wounds, current biases, and Southern momentum. For the North's survival, heed this call: Unite, strengthen, and prepare. May we find the wisdom and courage to face whatever comes.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached via [email protected]
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