by Mohammed Bello Doka
Nigeria stands today at a dangerous crossroads. A nation blessed with crude oil yet cursed with fuel scarcity is now flirting with the unthinkable: undermining the single most ambitious industrial project ever undertaken to end this contradiction. The Dangote Refinery was built to solve a national problem. Instead of being protected as a strategic asset, it has become a battlefield of interests, suspicions, regulatory bottlenecks, and quiet sabotage — both from within and outside Nigeria. If this refinery fails, Nigerians will be the greatest casualties.
This is not sentiment. It is economics. It is history. It is common sense.
For decades, Nigeria has operated an absurd fuel economy: exporting crude oil only to import refined products at crushing costs. This dependency has drained foreign exchange, weakened the naira, inflated transport costs, and made fuel scarcity a recurring national trauma. The Dangote Refinery, promoted by Aliko Dangote, was designed to break that cycle — not partially, but decisively. With capacity to meet domestic demand and export surplus, it promised cheaper fuel, stable supply, jobs, skills, and industrial depth.
Yet, instead of celebration, the refinery has faced relentless resistance.
A Project That Threatened an Old Order
The truth Nigerians must confront is uncomfortable: fuel import dependence created powerful winners. Over the years, an ecosystem emerged around import licences, shipping, storage, FX arbitrage, subsidy distortions, and scarcity-driven profits. This system was not built on productivity but on access — access to permits, to policy loopholes, to state discretion.
The Dangote Refinery disrupts that order. By localising refining at scale, it compresses margins, eliminates middlemen, and exposes inefficiencies that thrived in opacity. In doing so, it threatens not just businesses, but influence. That is why resistance has been ferocious, multi-layered, and persistent.
Sabotage by a Thousand Cuts
No serious observer can ignore the pattern. The refinery has battled regulatory friction, inconsistent policy signals, disputes over crude supply, public scepticism, and labour hostility. It has endured narratives that question its legitimacy instead of celebrating its scale. Allegations of sabotage — from theft and operational interference to policy obstruction — have repeatedly surfaced in public discourse.
Equally troubling are claims that external interests, long invested in Nigeria’s import dependency, are uncomfortable with a refinery that could redraw regional fuel trade routes. Nigeria has been one of the largest petrol import markets in Africa. Ending that dependence means losses elsewhere. In global energy politics, disruption rarely goes unanswered.
Whether internal or external, the effect is the same: delay, uncertainty, and risk — the very conditions that kill mega-investments.
Government’s Dangerous Ambivalence
Here lies the heart of the critique. A government serious about industrialisation does not watch passively while its most strategic private investment bleeds. Support does not mean immunity from regulation. It means clarity, fairness, and consistency.
Instead, Nigeria has sent mixed signals. Regulatory agencies clash publicly with the refinery. Policy reversals create uncertainty. Labour disputes escalate without decisive mediation. The state appears reactive rather than strategic.
This is not just a failure of policy — it is a failure of vision.
Countries that industrialise protect production. They regulate firmly but predictably. They understand that killing a strategic asset in the name of bureaucratic supremacy is national self-harm.
What Nigerians Stand to Lose
If the Dangote Refinery were weakened or allowed to fail, the consequences would be brutal:
Continued fuel import dependence and recurring scarcity
Persistent pressure on foreign exchange and the naira
Higher transport and food costs
Lost jobs and industrial skills
A devastating signal to investors that Nigeria punishes scale and success
No serious local or international investor would ignore such a signal. If a $20bn+ refinery can be suffocated by regulatory bottlenecks and hostile ecosystems, what chance does any other large investment have?
Nigeria would be telling the world: build at your own risk.
This Is Bigger Than One Man
Let it be said clearly: this is not about defending a billionaire. It is about defending a principle — that production should be rewarded, not punished. The refinery is a private investment with public consequences. Its success strengthens Nigeria. Its failure weakens us all.
Yes, the refinery must be regulated. Yes, competition must be protected. Yes, labour rights must be respected. But regulation must never become a cover for sabotage, and oversight must never degenerate into economic vandalism.
A Final Reckoning
Nigeria must choose. Does it want an economy built on production or on rent? On value creation or on access? On national strength or private comfort?
History will not forgive a nation that destroyed its own solution.
The Dangote Refinery must be allowed to work — transparently, competitively, and fairly. Anything less is not regulation. It is self-inflicted damage.
Mohammed Bello Doka can be reached at [email protected]
Abuja Network News
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