By Mohammed Bello Doka
As Nigeria inches toward the 2027 general elections, the political terrain is shifting in unexpected ways. A decade after his stunning defeat, whispers of a Goodluck Jonathan comeback are growing louder. Meetings, alignments, and strategic whispers all suggest that the former president may be positioning himself for an audacious return to Aso Rock. And if that happens, President Bola Ahmed Tinubu could face the fiercest storm of his political career.
Jonathan’s Reawakening and the ADC Coalition
Former President Jonathan has, for the most part, maintained a quiet political life since leaving office in 2015. Yet, his recent activities are beginning to raise eyebrows. Most notably, his private consultations with David Mark, the former Senate President who now serves as the National Chairman of the African Democratic Congress (ADC), have sent shockwaves through the political class.
The ADC, once regarded as a fringe player in Nigeria’s political game, is being refashioned as a coalition platform for opposition politicians, disenchanted party leaders, and major stakeholders who want to challenge the dominance of both the APC and PDP. With Jonathan’s name being floated as a possible standard-bearer, the ADC suddenly has the aura of a dark horse capable of reshaping 2027.
The Northern Equation: 2027 or 2031?
At the heart of this storm is the northern calculation of power rotation. While some argue that the presidency should return to the North in 2031, others insist the North should reclaim power in 2027, not four years later. Their reasoning is rooted in history: since 1999, the South has enjoyed more years in power — Obasanjo’s eight years, Jonathan’s five years, and now Tinubu’s current term.
For these northern power brokers, Jonathan represents a compromise candidate. He is a southerner, but one who can only serve a single term, thereby ensuring the presidency rotates back to the North by 2031. In their view, Jonathan’s return is not just about politics — it is about preserving Nigeria’s fragile balance of power.
Tinubu’s Fragile Grip on Power
For President Tinubu, the road to 2027 is riddled with potholes. The economic hardships stemming from the removal of fuel subsidies, galloping inflation, and rising insecurity have eroded public confidence in his government. Critics argue that he now faces the same kind of anti-incumbency wave that swept Jonathan out of power in 2015.
Worse still, Tinubu’s once-boastful coalition appears shaky. Northern leaders are restless, southern unity is fractured, and public anger is mounting. The very formula that delivered him victory in 2023 could prove impossible to replicate in 2027.
The Ghost of 2015: Jonathan vs Tinubu Reloaded
Beyond politics and economics lies a deeply personal rivalry. In the heated days of 2015, Tinubu was the arrowhead of Jonathan’s defeat. He branded Jonathan’s administration as weak, corrupt, and rudderless. Jonathan, in turn, allegedly sought Tinubu’s support before that election, but the APC strongman firmly backed Muhammadu Buhari, closing Jonathan’s road to re-election.
Over decade later, the tables could be turning. For Jonathan, 2027 is not just about redemption — it is about revenge, a chance to rewrite history and prove his political obituary was written too soon.
The Obi Factor: Youth vs Old Guard
As if Jonathan’s shadow was not enough, Tinubu also has to contend with Peter Obi and his fiercely loyal “Obidient Movement.” While Obi may not yet have the full national structure to claim the presidency outright, his grip on the South-East and the youth demographic is undeniable.
This places Tinubu in an impossible bind. To secure a second term, he must unite the South. Yet with Jonathan anchoring a resurgent South-South through the ADC coalition, and Obi rallying millions of young Nigerians in the South-East, that unity looks like a mirage.
Jonathan’s Calculated Silence
For now, Jonathan has neither confirmed nor denied his rumored ambitions. His silence is strategic, keeping allies and rivals guessing. But one thing is clear: his consultations with David Mark and the growing strength of the ADC coalition are far from accidental. Something is stirring.
Jonathan knows that time is not on his side, but so is Tinubu. If Jonathan chooses to return, he would be entering the race not as a newcomer, but as a tested former president with unfinished business — and as a candidate that northern politicians may see as a safe bridge to 2031.
The Big Question
As 2027 approaches, Nigeria finds itself on the brink of another historic showdown. The lines are blurring, alliances are shifting, and old rivalries are being reignited.
Tinubu, the kingmaker of 2015, now faces the unsettling possibility of being unseated by the very man he helped drive out of power. Jonathan, the fallen president of 2015, may yet rise again — this time with northern backing and a coalition platform behind him.
And so Nigerians are left asking:
Is Jonathan truly plotting a comeback through the ADC coalition, and if so, can Tinubu survive the storm of 2027?