On my column this week, I want to address a statement made by President Bola Ahmed Tinubu earlier this week. He claimed that when he assumed office in May 2023, the exchange rate stood at ₦1,900 to the dollar. The intention was clear: to dramatize the magnitude of the crisis inherited and to present his government’s management of the naira as a story of remarkable progress. But the evidence tells a different story, and it is important that we separate narrative from fact.
At the time of transition in May 2023, the official Investors and Exporters (I&E) window placed the naira at roughly ₦460 to ₦470 per dollar, while the parallel market traded around ₦750. The ₦1,900 mark did not exist then. It only surfaced months later in early 2024, after this administration removed the fuel subsidy, unified the exchange rate, and pursued a series of rapid reforms. In other words, ₦1,900 was not inherited, it was produced by policy choices.
This distinction is crucial. If Nigerians believe the naira was already at ₦1,900 when Tinubu took over, then its present range of ₦1,500 to ₦1,600 can be framed as a success story. But if they know the truth, that the exchange rate collapsed under this administration, then the supposed gains look more like a recovery from self-inflicted wounds rather than a turnaround from inherited disaster. Facts matter, because credibility is a non-negotiable currency in economic governance.
To be fair, President Tinubu inherited a fragile economy. Oil theft, weak non-oil exports, import dependence, and a debt-heavy fiscal position all combined to weaken Nigeria’s foundations. But the sharp collapse of the naira came after his reforms. The timing and sequencing of those reforms, executed without phased implementation or adequate social safety nets, accelerated the hardship. Inflation surged to above 30 percent in 2024, food prices doubled in many states, and ordinary Nigerians bore the brunt.
The human cost has been staggering. By mid-2025, the Jollof Index placed the average cost of a pot of jollof rice at over ₦27,000, a 153 percent increase compared to early 2023. A report by international agencies projected that 13 million more Nigerians could fall below the poverty line in 2025 alone. Real wages declined, forcing families to trade down on food, education, and healthcare. The story of prosperity being told from Aso Rock is not the story being lived in the markets of Lagos, the villages of Kebbi, or the streets of Kano.
The irony is that the data does contain glimmers of stability. The balance of payments swung to a surplus of $6.8 billion in 2024. Foreign reserves climbed above $40 billion. The World Bank reported GDP growth of 4.6 percent in late 2024, driven partly by non-oil exports and remittances. Investors welcomed the restoration of monetary policy orthodoxy. Yet none of these numbers has translated into relief for the average household. Growth without welfare is an empty statistic, and reform without cushioning is a recipe for resentment.
It is in this gap between elite narrative and popular reality that leadership is tested. President Tinubu’s statement about meeting the naira at ₦1,900 is not just a factual error, it is a political attempt to bridge that gap by reshaping memory. If people can be convinced that the situation was far worse in 2023 than it truly was, then today’s pain can be sold as progress. But Nigerians are not amnesiacs. They remember what a dollar cost in 2023 because it determined their rent, their food, and their children’s school fees. Collective memory cannot be erased by political convenience.
The path forward is not in rewriting history but in confronting it. Nigeria must tackle structural weaknesses: overreliance on imports, weak agricultural productivity, oil revenue leakages, capital flight, and insecurity in food-producing regions. The currency cannot be stabilized by rhetoric, it can only be stabilized by production, investment, and trust. And trust begins with truth.
In summary, the claim that ₦1,900 was the starting point of this government is not only inaccurate, it is misleading. What has happened under Tinubu’s administration is not the story of an inherited disaster overcome, but of a fragile economy subjected to painful reforms that triggered collapse and are now slowly recovering. Leadership does not require convenient fictions, it requires honesty, discipline, and the courage to tell people the truth even when it is uncomfortable. Nigeria deserves nothing less.
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