Nigeria’s political opposition stands at a crossroads. With the 2027 elections looming, fragmented parties face a stark choice: unite to challenge the ruling APC or remain divided and risk being manipulated and sidelined. From northern CPC blocs to the SDP under El-Rufai, the clock is ticking for leaders to set aside egos, forge alliances, and present a credible alternative — because disunity will leave them as mere pawns in Tinubu’s political game.
Tinubu's Advantage and the Opposition's Crises
Nigeria’s political landscape is heading for a showdown as the country inches toward the 2027 general elections. The ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, has tightened its grip on power, controlling both the National Assembly and enjoying far-reaching influence over the courts. Analysts say these twin instruments of state power have become the fulcrum of Tinubu’s political strategy: a mixture of dominance, manipulation, and survivalists instincts.
“The president knows the weakness of his opponents,” noted a political commentator in Abuja. “He doesn’t need to fight them head-on — he simply funds their internal wars, waits for them to tear themselves apart, and then uses the system to finish the job.”
Tinubu’s Playbook: Use and Abandon
Tinubu has long been accused of running what many describe as a “use-and-abandon model” in politics. He courts allies and opposition figures during campaigns, extracts legitimacy, votes, or grassroots machinery from them, and discards them once the mission is accomplished.
• In 2015, several northern politicians who joined forces with the APC complained they were sidelined after victory was secured.
• In 2023, former opposition leaders who crossed over to help Tinubu’s campaign discovered, too late, that promises of influence were swiftly forgotten once the government settled into power.
This pattern, opposition figures warn, will repeat itself in 2027 unless Nigeria’s opposition learns to work together.
Opposition in Disarray
The opposition space is crowded yet fragile:
• PDP ( Atiku Abubakar , Aminu Waziri Tambuwal) still has the widest national structure but is crippled by leadership disputes and endless factional battles.
• Labour Party (Peter Obi) carries massive youth energy and diaspora support, yet remains internally divided, with multiple court battles over control of the party.
• NNPP (Kwankwaso) commands grassroots loyalty in Kano and across parts of the North, but factional infighting has weakened its base.
• SDP (El-Rufai) now headed by El-Rufai, adds northern credibility and experience, but the party itself faces organizational challenges.
• CPC Bloc (Abubakar Malami) is at the forefront of the opposition coalition with the largest northern grassroots following. However, APC and Tinubu are actively trying to undermine their influence, courting select members to derail the bloc’s political relevance without granting them real power — unlike the ACN supporters under Buhari’s ACN-CPC coalition in 2015.
• ANPP block is arguably in the worst position. Despite historical contributions, APC refuses to recognize ANPP leaders or its political relevance. When ANPP complained of neglect, APC reportedly responded that “ANPP as a party ceased to exist since the merger with APC”, even as the party actively courts the CPC block.
Even the newly formed ADC alliance, which was touted as a fresh platform for unity, has already been dragged into court over leadership legitimacy.
A Familiar Script
For observers, this is not new. Nigeria’s politics has often favored the ruling party whenever opposition forces remain fragmented. In 2015, it was the opposition’s unity under the APC banner that toppled the PDP after 16 years in power. Today, the reverse scenario is playing out — a fractured opposition handing easy victories to the ruling party.
“The bitter pill for the opposition to swallow is that unless they put egos aside, APC doesn’t need to campaign too hard in 2027. Division alone will guarantee Tinubu victory,” said Dr. Musa Aliyu, a lecturer in political science at Bayero University Kano.
The Coalition Option and the Stakes Ahead
While Section 1 outlined the opposition’s crisis and Tinubu’s strategic advantage, Section 2 turns to the path of salvation for Nigeria’s opposition: coalition-building — and the high stakes involved.
CPC Block at the Forefront
The CPC block, led by Abubakar Malami, remains the most formidable northern force outside the APC. Historically, the CPC was part of the merger that formed APC — along with ACN, ANPP, a section of APGA, and remnants of the old PDP. While CPC contributed to Buhari’s 2015 victory as part of the ACN-CPC coalition, it is now at the forefront of the opposition coalition.
However, Tinubu’s administration is actively working to undermine the CPC block. While APC publicly acknowledges the CPC block and even courts some of its members, it simultaneously offers inducements to select leaders to derail the bloc’s influence — ensuring they do not wield the real political power that ACN supporters enjoyed under Buhari.
“The CPC block knows the game. Tinubu wants their support but not their power,” explained a political strategist familiar with northern politics.
This careful co-optation ensures the CPC bloc can deliver votes when needed but remains politically neutered once those votes are counted.
ANPP: The Forgotten Opposition
By contrast, the ANPP block faces a far worse fate. Despite its historical contributions and northern base, the APC has refused to recognize ANPP leaders or its political relevance. When ANPP leaders raised complaints about neglect and exclusion, the party reportedly responded that “ANPP as a party ceased to exist since the merger with APC.”
This double standard — courting CPC while ignoring ANPP — highlights a deliberate strategy: APC seeks to divide northern opposition, elevating compliant factions while sidelining others. This undermines the possibility of a fully unified northern front against APC in 2027.
SDP and Cross-Regional Allies
The Social Democratic Party (SDP), now headed by El-Rufai, adds an important cross-regional dimension. El-Rufai brings experience, political networks, and northern credibility, offering the coalition a bridge between grassroots mobilization (CPC) and institutional influence (PDP, SDP).
Other key figures in the coalition — Rotimi Amaechi, Naja’atu Mohammed, Aminu Waziri Tambuwal — further diversify the coalition, providing reach into the South-South, progressive northern circles, and legislative influence.
The Coalition’s Imperative
A united coalition is now the opposition’s only viable path. Fragmentation — whether through legal battles, defections, or internal rivalries — will play directly into APC’s hands:
• Tinubu’s control of the National Assembly and courts ensures opposition disputes can be delayed, dismissed, or manipulated.
• Vote-splitting in key northern and southern states hands APC a structural advantage.
• Internal egos, leadership disputes, and factional fights allow APC to “use and abandon” opposition figures without risk.
“The opposition must swallow their pride and act as one. Their failure to do so will see them reduced to pawns in Tinubu’s political game,” warned a senior political analyst in Abuja.
✅ Bottom Line
The opposition faces a stark choice: unite as brothers or perish together as pawns.
• Unity means pooling national, regional, and grassroots strength to mount a credible challenge.
• Disunity guarantees APC’s continued dominance, allowing Tinubu to exploit every rift while the opposition loses relevance, influence, and the trust of voters.
The clock is ticking, and history is watching: fragmented opposition ensures the ruling party writes the script; united opposition gives Nigeria a fighting chance in 2027.
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