Tinubu’s Nightmare or His Masterstroke? Opposition Unites Under ADC
Analysis: Can a divided opposition find strength in ADC—or will Tinubu turn their gamble into defeat?
In a dramatic twist that could reshape Nigeria’s political landscape, the coalition of opposition forces plotting to unseat President Bola Ahmed Tinubu in 2027 has finally put its cards on the table. After months of suspense, the group has settled for the African Democratic Congress (ADC) as its official platform, discarding the much-anticipated All Democratic Alliance (ADA), which remains unregistered.
The decision, announced after a high-level meeting in Abuja, has already triggered intense debate. To supporters, it is a bold masterstroke that offers immediate legitimacy and a clear path forward. To skeptics, it is a dangerous gamble that could play directly into Tinubu’s hands.
The Coalition and Its Big Names
The coalition is not short of heavyweights. Present at the Abuja meeting were former Vice President Atiku Abubakar, former Kaduna Governor Nasir El-Rufai, former Sokoto Governor Aminu Tambuwal, former Rivers Governor Chibuike Amaechi, former Attorney-General of the Federation Abubakar Malami, and former Interior Minister Rauf Aregbesola. Also in the fold is Peter Obi, the Labour Party’s 2023 presidential candidate, whose grassroots appeal remains strong.
The interim leadership of the coalition rests on David Mark as National Chairman, with Rauf Aregbesola playing the role of National Secretary and Bolaji Abdullahi serving as National Publicity Secretary. Together, they represent a formidable alliance that cuts across Nigeria’s political and regional divides.
Why ADC?
Explaining the choice, the coalition said the ADC provides instant legitimacy. The party is already registered with the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC), with structures in all 36 states and the FCT. This means no time wasted battling bureaucracy.
Another factor is optics. By rallying behind an existing party, the coalition projects unity and seriousness, countering the longstanding perception of Nigeria’s opposition as fragmented and directionless.
Importantly, the coalition declared that no automatic ticket will be given to any aspirant. Instead, a transparent primary process will decide the eventual presidential candidate, a move designed to prevent suspicion and keep all major players invested in the project.
Why ADA Was Abandoned
The alternative, ADA, was initially conceived as a fresh vehicle to carry the opposition to 2027. But despite clearing some preliminary hurdles, it is still awaiting full INEC registration.
Given the ruling party’s influence over state institutions, coalition leaders feared Tinubu’s government might exploit delays or outright block ADA’s recognition. “We have rested everything concerning ADA,” Bolaji Abdullahi told journalists, putting the matter to rest—for now.
The Risks of Betting on ADC
Yet, this bold decision comes with its own perils. The ADC is not a blank slate; it is already embroiled in internal disputes. Aggrieved members led by Nafi’u Bala have challenged the legitimacy of the David Mark-led executive in court. A ruling against the current leadership could throw the party—and by extension the coalition—into disarray at the most critical moment.
Some voices within the coalition are also whispering that it was unwise to completely abandon ADA. With ADC vulnerable to infiltration or destabilization, ADA could have served as a backup. Without it, the coalition has placed all its eggs in one basket.
Tinubu’s Record and the Fear of Interference
President Tinubu is no stranger to political brinkmanship. His career is marked by an uncanny ability to fragment rivals, co-opt dissenters, and deploy the machinery of state to neutralize threats. The opposition is acutely aware that ADC could become a target—whether through prolonged litigation, infiltration by loyalists, or subtle INEC maneuvers that tie the party’s hands.
This is why some analysts warn that the coalition may have walked straight into Tinubu’s trap. “He thrives on division,” one Abuja observer noted. “If you give him a party already riddled with disputes, you’ve handed him the tools to destroy you.”
The Strategic Debate: Was ADA the Better Bet?
There is a growing debate among political strategists. ADA, though unregistered, represented a clean slate, free from baggage and litigation. If quietly nurtured, it could have served as an insurance policy in case ADC implodes.
Abandoning ADA entirely removes that safety net. If ADC collapses under pressure, the coalition could find itself stranded, scrambling for a platform with elections already at the door. On the other hand, keeping ADA alive risked accusations of double-dealing and might have diluted the coalition’s message of unity.
Implications for 2027
What happens next will determine whether this gamble is remembered as a masterstroke or a historic blunder. If ADC holds together, the opposition may present Nigeria’s first truly united challenge to an incumbent president in decades. With Atiku’s networks, Obi’s youth appeal, El-Rufai’s northern reach, Malami’s legal clout, Aregbesola’s grassroots influence, and Tambuwal’s political dexterity, the coalition has the makings of a formidable machine.
But if ADC unravels—whether through court battles, infiltration, or internal mistrust—Tinubu could stroll into 2027 with a fractured opposition at his feet.
Conclusion
By choosing ADC, the coalition has made a bold bet. The party offers the structures and legitimacy needed to confront Tinubu, but it also comes with vulnerabilities that the president is well-positioned to exploit.
The unanswered question lingers: Has the opposition crafted Tinubu’s nightmare—or handed him his masterstroke?
Editor’s Note: This article is part of Abuja Network News Analysis Series, offering in-depth insights into Nigeria’s unfolding political landscape.