Abuja, Nigeria – July 3, 2025
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has called on the Nigerian government to revisit its proposed ₦54.99 trillion 2025 budget, raising concerns over the oil benchmark set at $75 per barrel—describing it as “overly optimistic” in light of declining global prices.
The advice came through the IMF’s Article IV Consultation Report released on Wednesday, where the Fund noted that Brent crude currently trades at about $68 per barrel, far below Nigeria’s official projection.
While the IMF commended Nigeria’s efforts in stabilizing the economy—raising its 2025 growth forecast to 3.4% due to improved oil production and decelerating inflation—it emphasized the need for fiscal realism. “Budgetary assumptions must reflect market realities to ensure economic stability and debt sustainability,” the report stated.
The Fund’s warning comes as Nigeria continues to grapple with revenue challenges, a weakening naira, and high public debt. With over 70% of government earnings still tied to oil, any mismatch between projected and actual crude prices could widen the budget deficit and disrupt planned capital projects.
Analysts say a revised benchmark may force the government to consider tough choices, including spending cuts or new borrowing strategies. The Tinubu-led administration is yet to respond officially to the IMF's recommendations.
As stakeholders await a policy response, many believe this warning underscores the need for Nigeria to fast-track its economic diversification plans and reduce overreliance on oil earnings.