Welcome to another Sarcastic Sunday, where logic is optional, loyalty is seasonal, and Nigeria's political elite continue to audition for who can most dramatically disaplace the other. I’m your host, Mohammed Bello Doka, and this week we’re forecasting a Category 5 political hurricane headed straight for the fragile egos of Obi, Kwankwaso, and Tinubu.
Grab your raincoats, because the clouds are gathering—and not even Seyi Makinde’s designer umbrella can save you now.
☁️ Obi's Weather Report: Cloudy with a Chance of Irrelevance
Let’s begin with our dear friend Peter Obi, who once promised to take us from “consumption to production” but now finds himself in a consumption-heavy crisis: Should he wait 6 more years for Tinubu, then another 8 for the North? That’s 14 years in political dog years—a full lifetime of relevance decay.
Can Obi still command youthful enthusiasm in 2039 with the same “we no dey give shishi” campaign? Or would he be remembered as that guy who trended in 2023 but never made it to the final act?
"Obi might not age, but relevance does. Twitter likes don’t buy time on the ballot."
Obi’s best chance—and probably his last—is to dive fully into the Coalition of the willing, the betrayed and politically Homeless (a.k.a. the Opposition Alliance). Because even if the coalition loses now ( which is unlikely), the North will still see him as a loyal Vice Presidential candidate post-Tinubu. But if he goes solo again, divides the South, and gifts Tinubu another four years on a golden platter, he may return to Onitsha to open a lecture series on “How Not to Lose Twice.”
Let’s make it clearer: if Obi contests alone, yes, he divides the South, but not in Tinubu’s favour. Instead, he starves the coalition of southern votes needed to win, while also eating into Tinubu’s fragile Southern support base. In other words, he helps nobody, burns both bridges, and ends up being hated from both North and South.
Worst of all, Obi will alienate his growing Northern support base—the very people now seeing him as a potential coalition hero. If he betrays them in 2027, after already losing in 2023 due to his Northern disconnect, then it's truly bye-bye Obi. The North will never forgive him, and the Obidients will be left shouting “We won!” while forgetting they didn’t win Kano, Katsina, Kaduna, Kebbi, Sokoto, Zamfara, Maiduguri, Yobe, Niger…
“We won without the North!”
That’s not politics, that’s a podcast episode.
Let’s be real: It’s better to be a VP in a winning coalition than a two-time loser with a motivational fan base.
🌪 Kwankwaso’s Forecast: High Winds of Hypocrisy, Thunder from the North
Next up is Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso, who is stuck in a political sandstorm of Tinubu-sponsored confusion. His NNPP is experiencing an identity crisis worse than a teenager in Lagos Island—half the party is being lured by brown envelopes, while the other half still thinks they can “kwankwaso” their way to Aso Rock.
But here’s the real kicker: Kwankwaso is the North’s self-proclaimed political Khalifa, the spiritual heir of Mallam Aminu Kano. That’s a heavy title to bear when your party is falling apart faster than your WhatsApp group chat.
Let’s remind the people of Aminu Kano’s immortal quote:
“Nigeria kasa daya amma kowa yasan gidan ubansa”
(Nigeria is one, but everyone knows his father's house.)
Translation: We love unity, but not at the expense of Northern interests.
So now, imagine Kwankwaso—the so-called protector of Northern dignity—crawling into APC with cap in hand, trusting Tinubu’s whispered promises like a man trusting a goat to guard his yams. Will the North forgive him? Will they still see him as their champion? Or will history remember him as the man who traded Aminu Kano’s legacy for a ministerial seat and a photo op?
If Kwankwaso dares to contest alone and divides Northern votes, thereby handing Tinubu another four years on a golden platter, he might as well retire to write a book titled: “How to Lose the Core North in 10 Easy Steps.”
And whatever Tinubu is promising him—Vice President, Senate President, Minister of Redundant Affairs—can Kwankwaso really trust him?
Ask Ganduje.
Here’s a man who printed Tinubu’s face on caps, wore them like armor, and screamed “My leader!” louder than a praise singer at a palace. Today, he is politically homeless, tossed aside like expired campaign rice. Tinubu loyalty comes with no warranty. Trust me Kashim Shettima will attest to this.
“In Tinubu’s game, loyalty expires faster than fuel subsidy.”
🔥 Tinubu’s Forecast: Scorching Ego, Cracks in the South, Panic in the Villa
Ah, Jagaban himself. Tinubu is facing a dilemma big enough to turn Lagos traffic into a metaphor for his presidency: How do you keep the South united when Peter Obi is still breathing?
Tinubu’s entire 2027 strategy is built on one shaky pillar: break the Northern hegemony and unify the South. His boys are on TV every day, singing his praises, prophesying his second coming like political evangelists:
“He is the best strategist!”
“He has ended Northern dominance!”
“He brought power to the South!”
But then, Obi shows up. If Obi joins the coalition—Tinubu’s South is divided.
If Obi contests alone—Tinubu’s South is still divided, and his Christian Northern base is shredded.
And if Seyi Makinde gets PDP’s ticket? Congratulations—it’s now a Yoruba vs. Yoruba bloodbath.
The South, Tinubu’s insurance policy, is now his political liability.
Meanwhile, Tinubu’s so-called unity front is about as united as Nollywood’s acting styles—plenty of drama, but no coherence. The coalition, on the other hand, is quietly forming a storm front, and Jagaban may soon realize his umbrella is full of holes.
🚨 Final Forecast: The Coalition Is the Only Lifeboat on This Sinking Ship
Let’s spell it out with zero ambiguity:
Any opposition figure refusing to join the coalition is doing Tinubu’s job for him.
Whether by pride, ignorance, or greed—they are dancing to his flute, knowingly or not.
And to those who believe Tinubu will reward them for “playing smart,” remember the Ganduje and Kashim Shettima lesson: Loyalty in Tinubu’s world is a one-way street, and at the end of that street is a trapdoor.
Obi and Kwankwaso have a choice:
- Unite now and win, or
- Divide and be devoured.
And for the rest of us watching from the floodplain of Nigerian politics, one thing is certain:
“The storm is coming. The coalition is the ark. You either get in—or get swept away.
”That’s your Sarcastic Sunday with Mohammed Bello Doka.
See you next week, if the country hasn't sunk or been sold out to the highest bidder either in France or somewhere else.