Kwankwaso's Defection to APC: What We Know So Far

By Mohammed Bello Doka 

Kano, Nigeria – May 16, 2025 – Former Kano State Governor and 2023 presidential candidate of the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP), Senator Rabi’u Musa Kwankwaso, has vehemently dismissed rumors of his return to the All Progressives Congress (APC). In a statement attributed to him, Kwankwaso reportedly rebuffed overtures from President Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who allegedly pleaded with him to rejoin the APC and promised to meet any conditions for his return. “I told him I would rather quit politics altogether than go back to the APC,” Kwankwaso is quoted as saying, adding, “As for the 2027 elections, we will build a strong political movement that will end APC’s rule.” While the specific quote remains unverified, the surrounding political dynamics in Kano and Nigeria’s broader political landscape provide a compelling backdrop to this unfolding saga.

The Rumor Mill: Kwankwaso’s Alleged APC Return

The speculation about Kwankwaso’s potential defection to the APC has dominated political discourse in recent months, particularly in Kano, where he remains a towering figure. Sources within the APC, including National Chairman Abdullahi Ganduje, have fueled these rumors by expressing openness to Kwankwaso’s return. Ganduje, a former ally turned rival, suggested that rejoining the APC could revive Kwankwaso’s “dwindling” political career. Similarly, Kano APC Chairman Abdullahi Abbas confirmed discussions about Kwankwaso’s potential return, framing it as a strategic move to bolster the party’s influence in Kano ahead of the 2027 elections. Reports also suggest that President Tinubu has been personally involved in negotiations, aiming to consolidate APC’s grip on the North-West, a region critical to national electoral success.

However, these overtures have met significant resistance within the APC’s Kano chapter. The APC Youth and Students Council (KASASCO) and other party stakeholders, including Minister of State for Housing and Urban Development Yusuf Ata, have publicly opposed Kwankwaso’s return. They argue that his reentry would disrupt party unity and yield little political value, given his alleged declining influence in Kano. This internal discord underscores the high stakes of Kwankwaso’s decision and highlights the complex power dynamics within the APC.

Kwankwaso’s Stance: A Resolute Rejection

The NNPP, through its Kano State

Chairman Hashimu Dungurawa, has categorically dismissed the defection rumors as “baseless and driven by desperation.” Dungurawa emphasized Kwankwaso’s commitment to the NNPP and his confidence in the party’s ability to challenge the APC in 2027. While the specific quote attributed to Kwankwaso—claiming that Tinubu pleaded with him and offered to meet any conditions—lacks corroboration from credible sources, Kwankwaso’s broader opposition to the APC is well-documented. In December 2024, he vowed to reduce the APC’s votes in Kano to less than 15,000 by 2027, signaling his intent to build a formidable opposition coalition. This aligns with his reported ambition to create a “strong political movement” to unseat the APC.

The absence of the exact quote in reputable outlets like *Punch*, *The Guardian*, or *Arise News* raises questions about its authenticity. It is possible that the statement was fabricated or exaggerated to amplify political tensions. Nonetheless, Kwankwaso’s consistent criticism of the APC and his rejection of defection rumors lend credence to the narrative that he has no intention of returning to the party he left in 2018.

Analyzing Kwankwaso’s Political Calculus

Kwankwaso’s potential political moves must be viewed through the lens of his storied career and the volatile political landscape of Kano and Nigeria. A two-term governor of Kano (1999–2003, 2011–2015) and former Minister of Defence, Kwankwaso commands a loyal following through his Kwankwasiyya movement, a grassroots political machine known for its red-cap-wearing supporters. His decision to run as the NNPP’s presidential candidate in 2023, after defecting from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), demonstrated his willingness to chart an independent path. However, his third-place finish in Kano, behind Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar, sparked debates about his enduring influence.

The rumors of his return to the APC reflect both his political relevance and the ruling party’s strategic calculations. For the APC, bringing Kwankwaso back into the fold could neutralize a potent rival in Kano, a state with one of the largest voter bases in Nigeria. President Tinubu’s reported involvement suggests a recognition of Kwankwaso’s ability to sway votes in the North-West, a region where the APC faces challenges from internal divisions and opposition parties. Yet, the opposition within the Kano APC, particularly from Ganduje’s loyalists, indicates that Kwankwaso’s return could exacerbate existing fault lines, potentially alienating key party members.

For Kwankwaso, the decision to remain with the NNPP or explore other options is fraught with risks and opportunities. Staying with the NNPP allows him to maintain his independence and leverage his Kwankwasiyya base to build a broader opposition coalition, possibly with the PDP or other parties. His December 2024 statement about reducing APC’s votes suggests he is banking on mobilizing anti-APC sentiment in Kano and beyond. However, the NNPP’s limited national infrastructure and reported internal crises, including claims of Kwankwaso’s expulsion (which the party has denied), could hinder his ambitions.

Alternatively, returning to the APC could offer Kwankwaso a platform to regain national prominence, potentially securing a key role in Tinubu’s administration or the 2027 campaign. However, this move would risk alienating his loyal base, who view the APC and Ganduje as adversaries. The reported claim that he would “quit politics altogether” rather than rejoin the APC, while unverified, reflects the depth of his rift with the party and his commitment to his current path.

The Broader Implications for 2027

Kwankwaso’s decision will have significant implications for the 2027 elections. Kano remains a battleground state, and his influence could tip the scales in a closely contested race. His ability to forge alliances with other opposition figures, such as Atiku Abubakar or Peter Obi, could reshape the political landscape, creating a formidable challenge to the APC’s dominance. Conversely, a fractured opposition would play into the APC’s hands, allowing Tinubu to consolidate power in the North.

The internal dynamics within the NNPP also warrant scrutiny. Reports of Kwankwaso’s expulsion, though refuted, suggest underlying tensions that could undermine the party’s cohesion. If Kwankwaso can stabilize the NNPP and expand its reach beyond Kano, he could emerge as a kingmaker in 2027. However, failure to do so might push him toward pragmatic alliances, even if not with the APC.