Nigeria's Bonny Light crude has slumped by 6.8%, trading at $69.90 per barrel, following fresh economic shocks from the global oil market. The sudden price drop, triggered by former U.S. President Donald Trump’s announcement of new tariffs and OPEC+’s planned production hike, threatens the foundation of Nigeria’s 2025 budget projections.
The nation's fiscal blueprint is anchored on an oil benchmark of $75 per barrel with a projected daily production of 2.06 million barrels. However, production realities have started to undercut these assumptions—February figures from the Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC) revealed a 3.8% decline, with output dipping to 1.67 million barrels per day.
Adding to the volatility, OPEC+—led by heavyweights Saudi Arabia and Russia—has confirmed its intention to gradually phase out 2.2 million barrels per day in voluntary supply cuts starting May 2025. Yet, in a signal of market caution, the group noted that the decision could be paused or reversed if prices destabilize further.
The dual blow of falling prices and declining production is set to test Nigeria’s economic resilience, especially as it leans heavily on oil revenues to fund national development and infrastructure in a fragile post-pandemic recovery era.