By Mohammed Bello Doka
As Nigeria inches closer to the 2027 general elections, the political landscape is gradually shifting, with murmurs of defections, realignments, and an impending battle for the country’s leadership. Former President Muhammadu Buhari, a central figure in the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC), now finds himself at a crossroads—torn between his loyalty to the party and the growing discontent among his political allies.
Buhari’s Loyalty vs. His Political Family’s Revolt
Buhari, known for his rigid discipline and ideological steadfastness, recently reaffirmed his commitment to APC, dismissing any speculation of defection or political neutrality. In a statement through his spokesperson, Garba Shehu, he declared that he remains a loyal APC member and will not turn his back on the party that brought him to power in 2015 and 2019.
However, while Buhari’s personal loyalty to APC remains intact, his close allies—especially those from his former cabinet and the Congress for Progressive Change (CPC) bloc—are plotting a different course. High-profile members of this faction have begun mobilizing to leave the party, dissatisfied with their diminishing influence under President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration.
This discontent has been simmering since Tinubu’s ascent to power in 2023, as many within Buhari’s camp believe they have been sidelined in key government appointments and policy decisions. Their grievances are not just about personal exclusion but also about what they perceive as Tinubu’s departure from the ideological principles that once united the APC.
The Grand Opposition Coalition: A Threat to APC?
Unlike previous election cycles where opposition parties were fragmented, Buhari’s former allies are not just defecting individually—they are working to unite opposition parties into a single formidable coalition. While it is not yet clear which platform they will adopt, discussions are ongoing about consolidating multiple opposition forces under one umbrella, similar to how APC was formed in 2013 through a merger of CPC, ACN, ANPP, and a faction of APGA.
This strategy, if successful, could significantly alter the 2027 electoral landscape. A united opposition would pose the most credible threat to Tinubu’s re-election, given that previous elections have often been decided by a divided opposition failing to rally behind a single candidate.
Challenges Facing the Opposition
Despite their growing momentum, the opposition faces several hurdles in executing their plan. The primary challenge is leadership—who will emerge as the face of the coalition? Unlike in 2015, when Buhari’s personal popularity helped unify opposition parties, the new alliance lacks a clear, widely accepted flagbearer.
Additionally, opposition parties in Nigeria have historically struggled with internal divisions. Merging multiple parties with differing interests, ideologies, and regional affiliations will require significant compromises. If the coalition is not built on a solid foundation, it could disintegrate before the elections, just as similar attempts have in the past.
Another key challenge is resources. APC, as the ruling party, controls significant financial and structural resources that could be deployed to counter any opposition movement. Running a successful nationwide campaign requires extensive funding, and unless the opposition secures strong financial backing, it may struggle to compete with the ruling party's machinery.
Furthermore, the electoral influence of incumbency cannot be ignored. With Tinubu in control of government institutions and security apparatus, navigating the political terrain will be an uphill battle for any opposition group.
Tinubu’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Despite the brewing opposition, Tinubu is not without his own advantages heading into 2027. His political sagacity, grassroots mobilization skills, and deep network within Nigeria’s power circles make him a formidable opponent. His administration has also made strides in certain economic and infrastructural sectors, which his supporters will likely use as a campaign strength.
However, he faces significant weaknesses. The economic hardship that followed the removal of fuel subsidies and the floating of the naira has led to growing dissatisfaction among Nigerians. If the current economic conditions do not improve significantly before 2027, this could be a major campaign liability.
Additionally, the cracks within APC are widening. If Buhari’s former allies successfully defect and take a significant portion of the party’s northern base with them, Tinubu’s chances of re-election could be weakened. APC’s unity will be tested in the coming months, and whether Tinubu can hold the party together remains to be seen.
Buhari’s Dilemma: To Intervene or Stay Silent?
Buhari’s dilemma is clear. His loyalty to APC dictates that he should support Tinubu, but his ideological stance of non-interference means he is unlikely to stop his allies from leaving. His silence alone could be interpreted as a nod of approval to the defectors, which could embolden more people to join the opposition movement.
Unlike in 2019, when Buhari’s endorsement was a defining factor for APC, his influence in 2027 may not be as direct. However, his silent approval or disapproval could shape the political narrative. If he subtly distances himself from Tinubu, it could trigger a significant shift in the northern voting bloc.
2027: A Political Battle Unlike Any Other
The 2027 election is shaping up to be a high-stakes battle that could redefine Nigeria’s political landscape. APC faces a rebellion from within, while the opposition is attempting an unprecedented coalition to unseat an incumbent president.
Buhari, despite no longer being in power, remains a central figure whose political stance will influence the coming elections. His next moves—whether explicit or silent—will determine whether APC retains its dominance or faces its biggest defeat yet.
In the coming months, as defections begin and political alignments take shape, all eyes will be on Buhari. Will he remain the loyal APC statesman, or will his silence pave the way for the greatest opposition movement Nigeria has seen since 2015?