By Mohammed Bello Doka, Abuja, Nigeria
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu’s administration, barely two years in, is grappling with formidable challenges that threaten to overshadow his legacy before the next general elections in 2027. Dubbed the “3Is” — Insecurity, Inflation, and Integration — these issues have tested the resilience of the government and the patience of the Nigerian people. While some of his policies are beginning to show promise, the question remains: can Tinubu overcome these odds and secure his place in history as a transformational leader?
Insecurity: A Region Under Siege
Insecurity has morphed into a hydra-headed monster, particularly in Northern Nigeria, where banditry, terrorism, and communal violence have become the order of the day. What began as localized attacks in Zamfara has now engulfed vast parts of Katsina, Kebbi, Sokoto, and Niger states. No state in the North is immune to these threats, with various forms of insecurity plaguing communities, including Boko Haram insurgency in the Northeast and farmer-herder clashes across the Middle Belt.
Zamfara, Sokoto, and Kebbi states present perhaps the most harrowing picture of lawlessness. Bandits have established a parallel governance structure, running open courts, collecting taxes, and asserting authority over terrified residents. In many cases, citizens fear and obey these non-state actors more than the government. The brutal murder of Sarkin Gobir remains a stark reminder of the dire situation, leaving many questioning the government’s resolve in addressing the crisis.
Critics argue that President Tinubu’s administration has failed to prioritize Northern insecurity because it does not directly affect his Southwest power base. This perception is dangerous, fueling distrust and resentment. While security agencies have recorded minor victories, the absence of a cohesive and comprehensive strategy to combat insecurity in the North has left millions feeling abandoned.
The government must urgently reclaim control of these territories, strengthen military operations, and invest in community-based intelligence systems. Without this, the North risks becoming a permanent war zone, further destabilizing the country.
Integration: A House Divided
The issue of integration within Tinubu’s political structure is both political and social. Politically, the president owes much of his success to the unwavering support of over 5,000 registered grassroots organizations. These groups formed the bedrock of his campaign, mobilizing millions of voters across the country. However, post-election realities have left many of these supporters feeling marginalized and ignored.
The frustration within these groups stems from the president’s perceived failure to adequately reward their efforts. While it is impossible to appoint everyone, the number of people representing these grassroots organizations in government is minuscule. Many feel excluded from the corridors of power, fostering anger, disillusionment, and betrayal. This sense of neglect could have grave consequences in 2027. Angry and hungry support groups may be less motivated to mobilize, and even worse, they may sabotage efforts by withholding resources or mismanaging campaign funds.
Socially, the challenge of national integration persists as Nigeria continues to grapple with deep ethnic and regional divides. Tinubu must address grievances across the geopolitical zones, ensuring inclusivity in appointments, policies, and programs. The perception of favoritism toward the Southwest must be dispelled through deliberate outreach to other regions, especially the North and Southeast.
If Tinubu fails to integrate these diverse interests into a cohesive political and social agenda, he risks alienating his base and further polarizing the nation.
Inflation: The Silent Killer
Inflation remains the most visible and immediate threat to the average Nigerian. The rising cost of goods and services has pushed millions into poverty, forcing families to live hand-to-mouth. From food to transportation, electricity to healthcare, the cost of living is spiraling out of control. While Tinubu’s economic reforms, such as the removal of fuel subsidies, were aimed at long-term benefits, their short-term effects have been devastating.
The good news is that fuel prices are finally coming down, a historic achievement under Tinubu’s administration. However, this downward trend has yet to reflect in the prices of food and other essential commodities. The disconnect between fuel price reductions and the cost of living highlights structural inefficiencies in Nigeria’s supply chain and distribution networks.
Tinubu must confront inflation head-on by implementing policies that directly impact the lives of ordinary Nigerians. Subsidies on essential goods, investments in agricultural productivity, and reforms in the energy sector are critical. Moreover, the president must ensure that the benefits of reduced fuel prices are felt across all sectors, from transportation to food production.
Failure to address inflation will erode public confidence in Tinubu’s economic policies and exacerbate poverty, making it increasingly difficult for his administration to claim success in 2027.
Signs of Hope
Despite these daunting challenges, there are glimmers of hope in Tinubu’s administration. The gradual reduction in fuel prices is a milestone that could redefine Nigeria’s energy sector. Local government autonomy is becoming a reality, empowering grassroots leaders and improving governance at the community level. These achievements demonstrate Tinubu’s capacity for bold reforms, but they must be sustained and expanded.
To build on these successes, Tinubu must adopt a multi-pronged approach that addresses the root causes of insecurity, inflation, and integration challenges. He must engage with critical stakeholders, from traditional rulers and religious leaders to youth organizations and civil society groups. Open communication, transparency, and accountability will be key in restoring public trust and confidence.
2027: A Litmus Test
The next general elections will be the ultimate test of Tinubu’s leadership. Can he overcome the 3Is and present a compelling case for continuity? Or will these challenges prove insurmountable, tarnishing his legacy and jeopardizing his political future?
As the clock ticks toward 2027, the stakes could not be higher. Tinubu’s ability to navigate these challenges will determine not only his place in history but also the future of Nigeria as a united and prosperous nation.
Tags
News