“Tell it not in Gath, publish it not on the streets of Ashkelon ….” but tell we must. Trump is back at the helm of the US after an astonishing electoral success of both Trump and the Republican Party or more appropriately, the Trump MAGA party.
Since the election, we have had a glut of post mortem analysis, recriminations and lamentations of what went wrong or right depending on your perspective. I think we are over subscribed in that department. I do not wish to dwell on that here, although the reoccurring question is why did Americans elect a seriously flawed character as Trump to the presidency?
Stripped of all excuses, reasons and rationales,
the persistent and stubborn truth is that Americans could not trust a black/Asian woman to be commander in chief of their country. You have to understand that in the pecking order of America’s historical and disgraceful racial hierarchy, black women are at the basement, lower than the proverbial belly of the snake.
I therefore will spend the rest of this piece on the probable consequences of the election.
Internally, the least powerful group, undocumented immigrants, will immediately take it in the shorts. There will be massive raids on factories and day labor centers not because it is an effective immigration control but as part of a performative display of deporting “illegal aliens.” Many aliens will be placed in deportation proceedings. There will be early morning raids to high concentration immigrants housing locations.
There will be official groundbreaking at the Mexican border for the construction of walls. There will be travel bans for some countries and visa restrictions for others. Children will be separated from parents at the border. (In the last Trump administration, 3,924 children were separated from their parents. 1000 of these cannot still be reunited with their parents because of lack of identity).
These are not just theoretical possibilities but certain realities because we have been here before. But most of these “actions” are ineffective and inefficient. When Trump placed anyone in sight in immigration proceedings in his first reincarnation, he clogged up the courts because there were not enough immigration courts and judges to handle the work load. Most of those cases were later dismissed or set for dates as far away as 2028. Despite the noise, Trump managed to build only 80 miles of walls in his first term. Of this, only 47 miles was primary wall while 33 miles was secondary walls. The US/Mexican border is 1 954 miles long.
Trump also banned travel from some countries ostensibly to stem terrorists attacks. However, the only country whose nationals successfully attacked the U.S. on 9/11/2001, Saudi Arabia, were excluded from the list.
Trump will essentially emasculate the Justice Department. But he will find out soon enough that indictments and convictions of political opponents is easier said than done. The criminal process is a little more complicated than political rallies.
States like California (5th largest economy in the world) New York, Illinois, Washington are gearing up to give his administration a run for its money. The Biden administration has scars to show for its legal tangle with republican states especially Texas. The states are formidable opponents to the Federal government in the U.S.
Trump may have an easier path on the international scene. Unless the Europeans are willing to step up their game substantially, Ukrainians will have to swallow their patriotic pride and concede territory to Russia. They will not get any support from Trump. He remembers that his first impeachment was triggered by Ukraine’s refusal to cooperate in his failed efforts to frame Joe Biden.
The place known as Gaza will remain uninhabitable pursuant to Netanyahu’s scorched earth war with the unabashed support of Trump. For Muslims in Michigan who wanted to send a message to Kamala Harris by refusing to vote for her, there will be an opportunity to test their theory that there is no difference between the parties regarding their Palestinian policies.
Iran- Trump will not urge caution but cheer Netanyahu on and possibly escalate the current tame attack and response relay between Israel and Iran.
Trump will impose tariffs on Chinese goods and risk a trade war. The World Trade Organization (WTO) will have a very busy schedule.
NATO- the Europeans hopeful are preparing for Trump to undermine the defense alliance to appease his man crush, Putin. France and Germany have indicated that Europe should be prepared for an alternative defense alliance.
All international organizations where the US hold sway will be decidedly hostile to African and other developing countries. Ngozi Iweala may have a very hard time getting a second term.BRICS may provide an alternative power block and become more relevant in the new dispensation in the mode of OPEC in its heyday.
Visa bans and restrictions may also adversely affect Nigerians. It may be time to seek vacation and scholarships elsewhere.
One quick digression-the Christian Right’s support for Trump- while confounding is explainable because it is a combustible mixture of white supremacy with distorted Christian theology. Hence David Duke and the evangelicals end up as bed follows, one with white sheets, the other in corporate suit speaking in codes. If you believe that Trump is a Christian or cares about Christianity, then I have a bridge at Ikpoba river in Benin city for sale to you.
The above, unfortunately paints a dystopian picture but hope lies eternal. As the Nigerian mobile poets display prominently on their 911 trucks “No condition is Permanent “. We survived Trump before and will again. The mommy rabbit always cautions its young that “these old eyes of mine have seen a lot of smoke in my days. Be patient “ Don’t despair, it only a four term. This too shall pass.
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