By Mohammed Bello Doka
The political landscape in Rivers State is rapidly shifting, with Governor Siminalayi Fubara stepping out from the shadow of his predecessor and former mentor, Nyesom Wike. What once seemed an unshakable alliance has now fractured, and the question on everyone's lips is: Is Wike still relevant in the political arena of Rivers State and beyond, especially with the 2027 elections drawing near?
Governor Fubara has not openly defected from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), but recent events suggest a quiet realignment of forces. Fubara’s rise to political prominence and consolidation of power has made him an influential player in Rivers State politics, slowly but surely asserting his independence from Wike. With the recent local government elections, which saw Fubara outmaneuver Wike’s faction, it is becoming increasingly clear that the political tide is shifting. In the backdrop of this power struggle, many are beginning to question whether Wike can still control the levers of power in the state as he once did.
Tinubu's Strategic Dilemma: Wike or Fubara?
President Bola Ahmed Tinubu has kept Wike close in his kitchen cabinet, leveraging the former governor’s influence to solidify his position in Rivers State during the 2023 elections. However, as 2027 approaches, Tinubu might be re-evaluating the utility of such an alliance. Wike has long been seen as politically opportunistic, with a history of switching loyalties whenever it suits his personal ambitions. His well-known collaboration with the APC during the 2023 elections, despite being a PDP member, highlights this tendency.
In contrast, Fubara has grown in stature and influence within Rivers State, demonstrating his ability to rally political support and deliver electoral victories without openly breaking from the PDP. Tinubu, recognizing the importance of securing Rivers State—a key political and economic powerhouse—might find Fubara to be a more reliable partner moving forward. Wike’s unpredictable nature and past betrayals raise doubts about his loyalty and whether Tinubu can trust him ahead of 2027, particularly if Wike’s own presidential ambitions resurface.
Wike’s Long History of Betrayal
Wike’s political career is littered with examples of disloyalty and opportunism. From his time as a staunch PDP loyalist to his eventual open courting of the APC during the last election cycle, Wike has repeatedly shown that his primary allegiance is to himself. His decision to support Tinubu’s presidential bid while still claiming membership of the PDP left many questioning his true loyalties.
President Tinubu, a seasoned strategist, is no doubt aware of Wike’s ambition to occupy Aso Rock. Despite his current position in Tinubu’s inner circle, there is little reason to believe Wike would not turn on Tinubu if it suited his personal goals. Given Wike’s history, Tinubu might need to consider alternatives to safeguard his political future. In Fubara, he may find a more dependable ally who, while yet to defect, is demonstrating his ability to navigate the political terrain of Rivers without Wike’s influence.
The Looming Opposition Threat: Kano and Rivers at the Forefront
Compounding the issue for Tinubu is the growing threat of a formidable opposition alliance. Former Kano State Governor Rabiu Musa Kwankwaso is reportedly planning to team up with Labour Party’s Peter Obi, a move that could drastically alter the 2027 election landscape. While Obi continues to engage with PDP stalwart Atiku Abubakar, the potential alliance between these opposition figures could unite key regions, including Kano and Rivers—both of which control substantial voting populations and immense resources.
For President Tinubu, losing Rivers and Kano to the opposition in 2027 would spell disaster. Both states are critical to securing a national victory. The possibility of Wike, whose loyalties remain suspect, being courted by this opposition alliance further complicates matters. Fubara’s growing control over Rivers State might give Tinubu a better chance of keeping the state within his sphere of influence, especially as Wike’s standing weakens.
The PDP’s Own Calculations
Even the PDP, Wike’s long-standing political home, is reconsidering its alliance with him. The party has witnessed Wike’s dalliance with the APC and understands the risks of relying too heavily on a figure whose loyalty can shift at any moment. With Fubara’s ascendancy in Rivers politics and his success in recent elections, the PDP may find it more beneficial to back the governor rather than risk Wike’s unpredictable behavior ahead of 2027.
Wike’s influence over the PDP has diminished significantly, and even within the party, there are discussions about realigning forces around more stable figures. Fubara’s consolidation of power within Rivers may be just what the party needs to regain some stability in the state, ensuring that the PDP has a fighting chance against a resurgent opposition in 2027.
Wike’s Diminishing Influence
As the 2027 elections approach, the political tides in Rivers State are shifting in favor of Governor Fubara. With Wike’s past betrayals, his presidential ambitions, and his willingness to jump ship when convenient, President Tinubu may no longer see him as a reliable ally. Fubara, on the other hand, represents a fresh force, one that has quietly but effectively taken control of Rivers State politics.
Tinubu’s 2027 strategy will require him to maintain a stronghold in both Kano and Rivers, two of Nigeria’s most populous and economically powerful states. The emerging threat from opposition figures like Kwankwaso and Obi means that Tinubu cannot afford to gamble on unreliable allies like Wike. Fubara, with his demonstrated political acumen and growing influence, might just be the key to securing Tinubu’s re-election.
In the end, Wike’s relevance in the scheme of things may be fading as Fubara continues to grow in prominence. Whether Wike can stage a political comeback remains to be seen, but one thing is clear: the power dynamics in Rivers State have shifted, and Wike’s once unchallenged dominance is now under threat.
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Opinion