No political insight is sacrosanct.
Every opinion is not only deeply prejudiced but also capable of being highly polarized, ranging from banal conjecture to the most outrageous supposition, including reckless speculation and absurd inference.
While the following is no different, there is absolutely no doubt that;
“History repeats itself, but in such cunning disguise that we never detect the resemblance until the damage is done.” – Sydney J. Harris (1917-1986)
If so, how many Nigerians are aware of the impending closure of a US drone facility, known as Base 201, at Agadez in Niger Republic that was opened in 2018 at a cost of $110m?
A follow-up question:
How does increased Russian influence in Niger Republic directly affect us as Nigerians?
The latter question is pertinent because of the reported influx of Russia’s Africa Corps operatives into a nation we share a land border of over 1600 km.
For context, this is a sahelian stretch more than the cross-country vehicular road distance between Maiduguri and Lagos, even between Sokoto and Calabar.
That a new paramilitary group established to replace the Wagner Group, the mercenary outfit founded by Yevgeny Prigozhin is entrenching itself a few hours drive from Abuja must have national security implications for us as a nation.
Unfortunately, we are too distracted to notice the long-term implications.
The Americans are probably not.
Perhaps the reason for the said symposium for the 7 governors of the North West geopolitical zone, including those of the embattled Benue, Plateau, and Niger states in the North Central.
What are the Americans really up to with these governors?
Lest we forget;
“In March 2014, twelve northern governors and one deputy were in the United States where they held sessions with senior officials of President Barack Obama’s administration, including National Security Adviser, Ms Susan Rice. Organised by the US Institute of Peace (USIP), the aim of the visit was how the Americans could work together with the northern states to address the Boko Haram insurgency and the socio-economic challenges in the region arising from it.
However, Dr Mu’azu Babangida Aliyu, chairman of the Northern Governors Forum confided that in retrospect, he had a feeling the American authorities invited them not just because of Boko Haram but to use them as a sounding board for the 2015 presidential election;
“I have no proof, of course, but I think the idea was to ascertain what the disposition of the North would be to the idea of another term for President Jonathan.
That was my reading of the situation. I believe it was all about the 2015 election for which the Americans had resolved not to support Jonathan.
They just wanted to size up for the level of commitment to regime change,” Aliyu told me.”
See details in p.183 of Against the Run of Play: How an Incumbent President was Defeated in Nigeria (2017) by Olusegun Adeniyi
Can somebody please remind me which part of the country PBAT’s main political obstacle resides in come 2027?
Interestingly, the same USIP is hosting another session for select governors that, like back in 2014, “aims to address the pressing security challenges in the northern region of the country.”
Reportedly, “the event, which is scheduled for April 23 to 25, 2024, in Washington, DC, will convene relevant United States government officials, Congressional staff, and Non-governmental organisations partners across the globe.”
As FD Roosevelt, the 33rd US President in office 1933-1945, would say, “In politics, nothing happens by accident. If it happens, you can bet it was planned that way.”
According to a onetime US Secretary of State and National Security Adviser, Henry Kissinger (1923-2023), “America has no permanent friends or enemies, only interests.”
Ronald Reagan, the 40th US President in office from 1981 to 1989, adds, “When you can’t make them see the light, make them feel the heat.”
If so, let us briefly return to Mr. Adeniyi’s book specifically to page 184;
“While the former Niger governor may not have been certain of his hunch about the disposition of the Obama administration towards the aspiration of Jonathan for a second-term, the former President himself was under no illusions about it.
“President Barack Obama and his officials made it very clear to me by their actions that they wanted a change of government in Nigeria and were ready to do anything to achieve that purpose. They even brought some naval ships into the Gulf of Guinea in the days preceding the (2015) election,” said Jonathan, who went into some detail about the extent that the then American president went to undermine him before the election.””
59 year-old Ali Mahamane Lamine Zeine is Niger Republic’s chief technocrat that runs their military government as Prime Minister.
He is reputed to be the behind the puppet master of a well orchestrated snub of President Tinubu’s special delegation to Niamey of former Head of State, Abdulsalami Abubakar and Sa’ad Abubakar, Sultan of Sokoto last August.
The VIPs were shabbily received by a junior officer who informed the retired Generals that were allowed to venture out of the airport into the capital.
Agreed, the same delegation was subsequently well received later that same month.
Diplomatic rudeness is often deliberate.
What is that former President Buhari understood about political events in Niger that he insisted on a slot for the current Junta head at our National Defence College?
Why did General Tchiani stubbornly refuse to come to Abuja at the last minute thereby enabling him to pull off the July 26, 2023 coup?
Last December, Monsieur Zeine visited Moscow and subsequently Tehran in January 2024.
With the French expelled and Americans pulling out of Niger will the Iranians move in on our neighbour's vast uranium deposits?
How far would the US go to prevent such an outcome?
Methinks the American intelligence failure over President Bazoum’s ouster will be passed on as collateral damage to Abuja.
I doubt if US President Biden would take the fall during an election year when there is a scapegoat that could be blamed elsewhere.
This begs the question of what the incumbent ECOWAS chairman would have done differently in the intervening period to secure American interests in Niger since last July?
Will President Tinubu feel the heat enough at the USIP seminar to go to the trenches in Niger to secure his second term?
Too many questions, too few answers.
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