Sit At Home: Southeast Communities Uniting Against IPOB, UGM, and Others?

By Fatima M. Sambo. 

By 9th August of this year, it will have been 730 days since the South-east region of Nigeria began observing a weekly sit-at-home exercise. This exercise was declared by proponents of a separatist state of Biafra to press for the release of the detained leader of the Indigenous People of Biafra (IPOB), Mazi Nnamdi Kanu. The sit-at-home exercise has had a profound impact on the region, causing massive economic losses, hindering productivity, and deterring potential investment.

Since the commencement of the Monday sit-at-home in 2021, 105 Mondays out of the 520 working days have been lost in terms of productivity and real economic activity. This translates to a loss of approximately N7.6 trillion in productivity, potential investments, and the loss of lives and properties. These figures highlight the devastating consequences of the sit-at-home exercise on the South-east region.

The sit-at-home exercise has significantly affected productivity in the region. Jobs are being threatened, as businesses struggle to operate effectively with the regular disruption caused by the sit-at-home orders. Investors have also lost confidence in the region, leading to a decrease in investment opportunities. Insecurity has increased, with a rise in social vices and a near collapse of infrastructure. All of these factors combine to create a challenging environment for economic growth and development in the South-east.

An investigation sponsored by the International Centre for Investigative Reporting (ICIR) published in May 2023 revealed that businesses in the region had lost a staggering N5.375 trillion between August 2021 and December 2022 due to the sit-at-home exercise. Additionally, an economic and financial expert, Dr. Chiwuike Uba, estimated that the South-east had lost approximately N7.646 trillion between August 2021 and July 2023, taking into account the lost productivity from 101 days within that period.

It is important to note that these figures mainly represent the losses suffered by microenterprises in the region. The social and economic costs of deaths, destruction of properties, and other related expenses have not been included in the total economic loss to the South-east. The true impact of the sit-at-home exercise on the region's economy could be much higher when considering all the direct and indirect costs.

Furthermore, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) shows that the South-east has the least revenue profile among all the regions in Nigeria. The internally generated revenue (IGR) of various state governments in the South-east for the first quarter of 2021 highlights this disparity. Abia generated N7.550b; Anambra generated N12.773b; Enugu generated N14.140b; Ebonyi generated N7.753b, and Imo generated N9.991b. These figures were recorded shortly before the Monday sit-at-home exercise began in the region.

A review of the projected IGR of states in the South-east for the first quarter of 2023 reveals that none of the states met their revenue targets in the preceding year. Anambra state was the only exception, achieving 27 percent of its projected revenue. The other states in the region, including Imo, Enugu, Abia, and Ebonyi, generated less than 15 percent of their projected internal revenue. This revenue shortfall further exacerbates the economic challenges faced by the South-east.

The negative impact of the sit-at-home exercise on the economy has prompted some state governors to take action. The Governor of Enugu state, Peter Mbah, banned the sit-at-home order in the state effective June 5, 2023. He emphasized that the state was losing N10 billion every Monday due to the sit-at-home, jeopardizing the $30 billion GDP projection of his administration. However, despite the ban, some businesses and institutions continued to remain under lock and key, prompting Governor Mbah to threaten revoking licenses of businesses that failed to open on Monday, July 24.

The consequences of the sit-at-home exercise extend beyond economic losses. The sit-at-home order has affected various sectors, including tourism and hospitality. Selected hotels in the region reported losing over 80 percent of their bookings on any sit-at-home day. Small traders who depend on daily sales to earn a living often end up borrowing money to sustain themselves on sit-at-home days. Government revenue is also adversely affected, as it cannot collect taxes and levies from motor parks, markets, tricycle riders, and miners.

Moreover, the sit-at-home exercise has led to a loss of both foreign and local investments in the South-east. Businesspersons in cities like Onitsha have started relocating their businesses to neighboring states with more stable environments, such as Asaba, Cross River, and Rivers. This trend has resulted in increased unemployment in the region and a potential rise in crime rates.

The negative consequences of the sit-at-home exercise on the South-east are far-reaching and require collective efforts to address. Overcoming the insecurity posed by the exercise is crucial for the region's economic growth and development. It is essential that stakeholders work together to find a peaceful resolution to the issues fueling the agitation for Biafra. Only through a stable environment can the South-east regain its economic stability, attract investors, and ensure a prosperous future for its people.