Source: Compact Jamming.
So, several days ago, I published a post with the following title: “BREAKING: WAGNER-AFFILIATED RIVAL FORCES CLAIM CONTROL OF SUDANESE GOVERNMENT HOUSE.” But then, I came back and appeared to walk back my investigative report under that title by implying that Wagner was rather affiliated with the Sudanese Armed Forces and the ruling authority under Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan
After I made that publication, I wasn’t comfortable. I’ve done this for awhile and I know when something doesn’t add up. A strong misinformation campaign was at play in Sudan and the best way to check it is to step back, re-assess and reshuffle sources, follow the money and you’re face to face with Facts. That’s why I took a long pause and resolved I wasn’t providing any more updates until I had cracked the Intelligence misinformation code behind SUDAN and I have. And based on the authentic information at my disposal, some of which I’ll share with you now, my initial investigative report on the situation in SUDAN, was ACCURATE! I was right! It is the opposing RSF that is Wagner-affiliated. Now, I’ll walk you through the genesis but I won’t publish everything verbatim, for reasons known to me. However, I’ll publish enough to give you an idea, at least.
Okay, we all know Omar al-Bashir, one of the longest serving & most popular Sudanese presidents. Reportedly, when the shake up that threatened his regime began around 2017, al-Bashir was said to have traveled to Russia to seek the Syria-style partnership with Russia, in order to save his regime. Knowing that such partnerships understandable come at a price, al-Bashir quickly promised Russia that Sudan would become Russia’s gateway to Africa. That’s a very pregnant and far reaching promise. And even though the timing of this could’ve been earlier, he was quick to make good on his promises.
Reportedly, he invited a bunch of Russian miners to get involved in the Sudanese massive gold mining sector, given that SUDAN is Africa’s third largest gold producer.
If you read about Russian involvement in Sudan in mainstream media, you’ll probably hear about this gold thing a lot and in greater details, including how it all ties to the Wagner group and its leader. But I’ll tell you what the real issue is…The real bone of contention is the proposal for A RUSSIAN NAVAL BASE IN SUDAN.
Here’s how things went down…so, remember that in 2019, Al-Bashir was ousted through sustained protests, just like it happened in Ukraine when Russian-leaning Yanukovich was ousted in 2014, during the maidan revolution. When this happened in 2019, Gen. Abdel Fattah Al-Burhan took over. He took over through a virtually bloodless coup, occasioned by several weeks of protests (Talk about benevolent coup to save the nation)
But the protesters didn’t want the military in charge. They wanted them to immediately hand over to a civilian government. That didn’t happen but an agreement was reached to form a coalition between the military and the civilians, so the protest organizers agreed. The agreement was that in 2021, the entire coalition government headed by the military will oversee an electoral process through which power is finally and fully transferred to a civilian head of state.
When the time for that came in 2021, precisely on October 16, 2021, pro military protests organized by the Charter of the National Accord broke out in the capital, Khartoum and protesters demanded that Gen. Abdel Fattah, Chair of the Sovereignty Council formed between military and civilians, seize control and take over the country, rather than hand over to a civilian.
On 21 October, hundreds of thousands of pro-civilian protesters besieged cities across Sudan calling on Al-Fattah to resign. Protests continued on both sides, and on 25 October, 2021 Gen. Fattah began arresting members of the civilian leadership in the coalition and later declared that the Sovereignty Council (coalition) was dissolved and that a new regime headed by him will now lead the country till an election is organized in July of 2023. And he said it wasn’t a coup as many alleged, that it was him trying to avoid civil war in Sudan.
By this time, the Wagner forces, at the behest of the ousted Al-Bashir, were said to already have been in the country for some years. In fact, it was said that Wagner had tried to intervene to stop the ouster of Al-Bashir, but the other guys had their way and he was forced out. However, Wagner remained in the country.
Keep in mind that during the Sovereignty Council government era, a series of agreements were reached between Russia and the government of Sudan, and one of them was the establishment of a Russian Naval base at Port Sudan. Per the agreement, the prospective base would host a naval logistics center & repair yard, up to 300 personnel & about four naval ships, including nuclear-powered vessels.
Owing to sustained pressure from the U.S., Sudan began soft-pedaling on the agreement and later abandoned it altogether.
After Gen. Fattah’s take over and arrest of civilian members of the dissolved coalition, Wagner allegedly tried to warm up to him to find common grounds, but relations quickly broke down, understandably.
After this incident, Wagner reportedly pulled back into their shells in search of new relationships. They were said to have found one with RSF and it’s commander, General Mohammed Hamadan Dagalo, who was Fattah’s deputy and more open to a pro-Russian way of doing things and would guarantee the safe implementation of the agreements signed between Moscow & the al-Bashir government/ and another between Russia & Sovereignty (coalition) Council, especially the establishment of a naval base. So, it was game on. Read my previous post on this to see how the crises between the two factions began.
So basically, it’s all about agreements and strategic interests.
As of today, many countries, especially in the west have started evacuating their citizens from Sudan as situation has greatly deteriorated.
Yesterday, it was reported that about 300 Government soldiers were seen escaping into neighboring Chad with thousands of civilians caught in the middle.
A French convoy was recently hit, according to its Foreign ministry. Egypt says a member of its mission in Sudan has been shot dead. Biden now says the United States has temporarily suspended operations at their embassy in Khartoum. Obviously, Sudan is at war - a full scale war and both Russia, US, UN and many other countries have called for calm, but it doesn’t seem anyone is listening. The next few days will be very critical as this multi-faceted battle of interests unfold in Sudan.